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Posted On: 02/15/2021 3:07:56 PM
Post# of 153903
Totally agree all your scenarios are possible, perhaps even probably given the aviptadil reports, Cdiddy.
If one main effect of treatment improvements during the last year has been extending the time period before really, really sick people pass away from covid, then all three of your scenarios must be true.
I think even 30% CD12 28 day placebo mortality is a big success for LL:
(1/3)*30 + (2/3)*LL = 87/393 ---> LL=18.2%
which gives a LL mortality reduction of [ 1 - 18.2/30 ] = 39.3%
Buy maybe only 77 deaths are inside of 28 days:
(1/3)*30 + (2/3)*LL = 77/393 ---> LL=9.6%
which gives a LL mortality reduction of [ 1 - 9.6/30 ] = 68%
If LL follows aviptadil, and most if not all of deaths ouside of 28 days are placebo and not treatment, then 30% CD12 placebo inside of 28 days is even a more massive win for LL.
The difference between LL and aviptadil may prove to be that LL achieves stat sig within 28 days while aviptadil cannot achieve stat sig within 28 days.
If one main effect of treatment improvements during the last year has been extending the time period before really, really sick people pass away from covid, then all three of your scenarios must be true.
I think even 30% CD12 28 day placebo mortality is a big success for LL:
(1/3)*30 + (2/3)*LL = 87/393 ---> LL=18.2%
which gives a LL mortality reduction of [ 1 - 18.2/30 ] = 39.3%
Buy maybe only 77 deaths are inside of 28 days:
(1/3)*30 + (2/3)*LL = 77/393 ---> LL=9.6%
which gives a LL mortality reduction of [ 1 - 9.6/30 ] = 68%
If LL follows aviptadil, and most if not all of deaths ouside of 28 days are placebo and not treatment, then 30% CD12 placebo inside of 28 days is even a more massive win for LL.
The difference between LL and aviptadil may prove to be that LL achieves stat sig within 28 days while aviptadil cannot achieve stat sig within 28 days.
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