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Posted On: 02/12/2021 4:35:12 PM
Post# of 148891
Significance boundary for total deaths from 82 to 91
We don’t know whether post-28-day deaths are included in the 87 (and/or the mid-term 45) number, so I did a table. For a range, I added 4 for the last week, while studies indicate 10% is a reasonable fraction to be outside 28 days.
I calculated the minimum deaths in the control group to attain significance at each total death number. This ranges from 35 (26.7%) to 38 (29.0%), quite low versus other control groups discussed here.
Relative risk at the boundary ranges from 0.671 to 0.697, or a 30.7% to 32.9% relative reduction.
Absolute death reduction at the boundary ranges from 8.8 to 9.5 lives saved per hundred treated, reflecting a number needed to treat to save a life of 10.5 to 11.4.
Total Control Treatment P(2 sided)
. 82 . . 35/131 . . 47/262 . . .0421
. 85 . . 36/131 . . 48/262 . . .0447
. 88 . . 37/131 . . 51/262 . . .0472
. 91 . . 38/131 . . 53/262 . . .0497
I’ve switched to MedCalc’s relative risk calculator - it seems about .01 more significant than the difference on proportions test, but it’s the test others are using. https://www.medcalc.org/calc/relative_risk.ph
Why am I posting this? We have a long weekend. How about everyone make their final guess on deaths in each group and we'll see who nails it best? Is the award called the Ohmie?
We don’t know whether post-28-day deaths are included in the 87 (and/or the mid-term 45) number, so I did a table. For a range, I added 4 for the last week, while studies indicate 10% is a reasonable fraction to be outside 28 days.
I calculated the minimum deaths in the control group to attain significance at each total death number. This ranges from 35 (26.7%) to 38 (29.0%), quite low versus other control groups discussed here.
Relative risk at the boundary ranges from 0.671 to 0.697, or a 30.7% to 32.9% relative reduction.
Absolute death reduction at the boundary ranges from 8.8 to 9.5 lives saved per hundred treated, reflecting a number needed to treat to save a life of 10.5 to 11.4.
Total Control Treatment P(2 sided)
. 82 . . 35/131 . . 47/262 . . .0421
. 85 . . 36/131 . . 48/262 . . .0447
. 88 . . 37/131 . . 51/262 . . .0472
. 91 . . 38/131 . . 53/262 . . .0497
I’ve switched to MedCalc’s relative risk calculator - it seems about .01 more significant than the difference on proportions test, but it’s the test others are using. https://www.medcalc.org/calc/relative_risk.ph
Why am I posting this? We have a long weekend. How about everyone make their final guess on deaths in each group and we'll see who nails it best? Is the award called the Ohmie?
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