Lower deaths are a problem for any argument that (1) estimates the proportion of deaths in the control group from external information, (2) calcs est control deaths by multiplying by 131, and (3) calculates est LL deaths by subtraction.

Arguing this way, every lower death must be in the treatment group.

That sounds like all the "nattering nabobs of negativism" (anyone old enough to remember that reference?) largely on the "other board."