I tend to agree with you. However, my hope is that we will come in higher than that. Not only from an approval perspective, but because the more we can reduce mortality, the faster we can beat this thing.

While vaccines are one approach to getting back to normal, so is immunity from recovery. If we are able to reduce mortality by say 50%, it would allow reopening sooner than if just from vaccines.

And with reopening, we would have more cases and more recoveries.

I am not advocating for intentional herd immunity, but it will be a consequence of reducing mortality.