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Posted On: 01/12/2021 4:56:11 PM
Post# of 149219
The mortality rate guessing game brings on a couple kinds of cognitive dissonance.
On the one hand, many of us are human beings, and we don't want people to die. On the other hand, we are investors, and numbers are mostly numbers, after all, so we do want people in the placebo/SOC arm to die, in order that Leron can look good by comparison.
On the one hand, we know the results at the halfway point weren't SO good that they could shut down the trial for efficacy, so we don't huge numbers of dead, because greater mortality might mean more mortality in the Leron arm. On the other hand, it would be all right (since they are just numbers, after all) for a lot of people in the Placebo arm to die AFTER the halfway point, because that couldn't have affected the halfway interim analysis.
In the end, I just want to see the numbers, and I want Leron to look good, and I don't want to think about the people who died in the Placebo arm, and I want an EUA so I can get back to just plain wanting people to live, period. It's hell being an investor. It takes the human being plain out of you, at times.
On the one hand, many of us are human beings, and we don't want people to die. On the other hand, we are investors, and numbers are mostly numbers, after all, so we do want people in the placebo/SOC arm to die, in order that Leron can look good by comparison.
On the one hand, we know the results at the halfway point weren't SO good that they could shut down the trial for efficacy, so we don't huge numbers of dead, because greater mortality might mean more mortality in the Leron arm. On the other hand, it would be all right (since they are just numbers, after all) for a lot of people in the Placebo arm to die AFTER the halfway point, because that couldn't have affected the halfway interim analysis.
In the end, I just want to see the numbers, and I want Leron to look good, and I don't want to think about the people who died in the Placebo arm, and I want an EUA so I can get back to just plain wanting people to live, period. It's hell being an investor. It takes the human being plain out of you, at times.
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