(Total Views: 614)
Posted On: 01/08/2021 11:19:54 AM
Post# of 154959
At a 50% death rate reduction, I don't think the trial would have been halted.
I think we would have needed about a 60% death rate reduction, to obtain a p value equal to or less than 0.001 which is what is needed to halt a trial.
My worthless estimate is that we will have a reduction in death rate between 42% to 55% with an EUA coming. As TechGura showed mathmatically, of the 87 deaths, even if 50 or 51 of those are in the leronlimab group (quite doubtful), we still achieve a p value of about 0.04 so any deaths below 51 is great and quite probable.
I think we would have needed about a 60% death rate reduction, to obtain a p value equal to or less than 0.001 which is what is needed to halt a trial.
My worthless estimate is that we will have a reduction in death rate between 42% to 55% with an EUA coming. As TechGura showed mathmatically, of the 87 deaths, even if 50 or 51 of those are in the leronlimab group (quite doubtful), we still achieve a p value of about 0.04 so any deaths below 51 is great and quite probable.
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