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Posted On: 01/07/2021 3:08:23 AM
Post# of 153904
slmf - my logic is flowing the other direction.
I assert baldly I believe there will be between 28% (37) and 35% (46) deaths in the placebo group by 28 days. Just by prior discussions, trend lines, wags about the s vs. c mix. Your range may differ.
If all 87 deaths we heard about occurred by day 28, then at the 28% placebo rate the mix of 28-day deaths is 37 vs. 50. If, say 8 happened post-day-28 rather than 0 as I supposed, the mix for PE is 37 vs. 42. Far better.
I assert baldly I believe there will be between 28% (37) and 35% (46) deaths in the placebo group by 28 days. Just by prior discussions, trend lines, wags about the s vs. c mix. Your range may differ.
If all 87 deaths we heard about occurred by day 28, then at the 28% placebo rate the mix of 28-day deaths is 37 vs. 50. If, say 8 happened post-day-28 rather than 0 as I supposed, the mix for PE is 37 vs. 42. Far better.
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