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Posted On: 12/18/2020 4:33:58 PM
Post# of 148936
You can look back at my prior projections on the TradingView site, press the play button and see how well the projections held into the future. I'd say like most technical analysis they're about 75% accurate, with strings of high precision followed by strings of off the wall errors if the overall structure hypothesis gets way off. The main risk of this projection is that it's too conservative, and accelerates upward faster than shown on some news like Phillipines approval.
After projection there's a question of execution: exactly how to feather sell and rebuy orders around the turning points that determine how much you can profit from the projections. I didn't anticipate the correction after June blowoff would get as deep as $1.62 but it did end up as a clear 5-wave down wedge on multiple scales, and I re-bought all the way down into $1.64. Corrections are much more chaotic and harder to predict than strong bullish trends. Once you understand the typical structure of starting a new move with tentative volatility (wave 1 up and corrective wave 2), then accelerating into a stronger, faster slope, higher volume, longer wave "3", followed by a series of corrective 4s and higher highs (5s), you can tune your trading strategy around the projected structure. So I took some profits in $2.5-3.5 zone and fully rebought a bit lower, waiting for the central wave (iii) this week not taking any profits again until this morning. The worst is to sell just before or during a strong third wave, like last week at $3, because by definition of third wave you won't get a chance to rebuy at those levels after the acceleration upward! Selling today may still seem a bit early if it jumps to $6 next week, but understanding this structure gives peace of mind as you should have a chance to rebuy mid-$4s after Christmas (we're past the core (3) of iii).
Note I only trade with a few percent of my core to scratch the itch, but my CYDY share holdings at $1.62 were largest ever. Luckily the brain isn't really rational about orders of magnitude and gets just as happy from selling 1% and rebuying lower as from selling 10% and rebuying lower. Most of my core is still in certificates or warrants that are a pain to register -- that pain is a good thing!
After projection there's a question of execution: exactly how to feather sell and rebuy orders around the turning points that determine how much you can profit from the projections. I didn't anticipate the correction after June blowoff would get as deep as $1.62 but it did end up as a clear 5-wave down wedge on multiple scales, and I re-bought all the way down into $1.64. Corrections are much more chaotic and harder to predict than strong bullish trends. Once you understand the typical structure of starting a new move with tentative volatility (wave 1 up and corrective wave 2), then accelerating into a stronger, faster slope, higher volume, longer wave "3", followed by a series of corrective 4s and higher highs (5s), you can tune your trading strategy around the projected structure. So I took some profits in $2.5-3.5 zone and fully rebought a bit lower, waiting for the central wave (iii) this week not taking any profits again until this morning. The worst is to sell just before or during a strong third wave, like last week at $3, because by definition of third wave you won't get a chance to rebuy at those levels after the acceleration upward! Selling today may still seem a bit early if it jumps to $6 next week, but understanding this structure gives peace of mind as you should have a chance to rebuy mid-$4s after Christmas (we're past the core (3) of iii).
Note I only trade with a few percent of my core to scratch the itch, but my CYDY share holdings at $1.62 were largest ever. Luckily the brain isn't really rational about orders of magnitude and gets just as happy from selling 1% and rebuying lower as from selling 10% and rebuying lower. Most of my core is still in certificates or warrants that are a pain to register -- that pain is a good thing!
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