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Posted On: 10/13/2020 9:34:57 AM
Post# of 155760
Respert,
Good point as we are now in a numbers game. One patient more (or less) in one of the groups will have a large influence on the outcome.
We are bounded now for a solid number of deaths (45) and some statistics on overall deaths for Severe and Critical patients.
And this is where the problems are in regard we knowing what to expect. We don’t know how many severe and how many critical each, LL and the placebo (SOC) got.
Which makes our computations very difficult …
We know 23% of all patients died. We know our % needs to be much smaller than the SOC group. Meaning THEY must have more than 23%. So, what are he chances of this happening??? This is the one million question (well for some, more than a million question, literary
). We know that overall (SOC-treated) Severe deaths are possibly a bit lower than this level and Critical are likely higher.
And this is when lady luck comes … How many critical did we get ??? How many did THEY get ??? . I don’t believe the partition was pre-determined by design as his is a S/C trial (both “groups” together).
So … we wait with the certainty of SCIENCE on our side and hopefully lady luck smiling at us.
Good point as we are now in a numbers game. One patient more (or less) in one of the groups will have a large influence on the outcome.
We are bounded now for a solid number of deaths (45) and some statistics on overall deaths for Severe and Critical patients.
And this is where the problems are in regard we knowing what to expect. We don’t know how many severe and how many critical each, LL and the placebo (SOC) got.
Which makes our computations very difficult …
We know 23% of all patients died. We know our % needs to be much smaller than the SOC group. Meaning THEY must have more than 23%. So, what are he chances of this happening??? This is the one million question (well for some, more than a million question, literary
). We know that overall (SOC-treated) Severe deaths are possibly a bit lower than this level and Critical are likely higher. And this is when lady luck comes … How many critical did we get ??? How many did THEY get ??? . I don’t believe the partition was pre-determined by design as his is a S/C trial (both “groups” together).
So … we wait with the certainty of SCIENCE on our side and hopefully lady luck smiling at us.
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