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Posted On: 10/11/2020 4:50:59 AM
Post# of 149285
I give it a 20% chance of being stopped
If our trial was just critical patients, I would be more confident but because it also takes "only" severe patients (ones who don't require aggressive intervention to help respiration) the chance of mortality being above 31-32% in the placebo arm seems less likely. I've looked at 9 studies and that's how it appears to me.
The only caveat, and the reason I give it a 20% chance, is that our trial, unlike other comparable drugs, has essentially no exclusion criteria short of patients with do-not-resuscitate orders. So a relatively small number of patients on ECMO or in a similarly bad condition could skew the placebo mortality number and give us a low enough p-value.
If our trial was just critical patients, I would be more confident but because it also takes "only" severe patients (ones who don't require aggressive intervention to help respiration) the chance of mortality being above 31-32% in the placebo arm seems less likely. I've looked at 9 studies and that's how it appears to me.
The only caveat, and the reason I give it a 20% chance, is that our trial, unlike other comparable drugs, has essentially no exclusion criteria short of patients with do-not-resuscitate orders. So a relatively small number of patients on ECMO or in a similarly bad condition could skew the placebo mortality number and give us a low enough p-value.
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