Hard to come at it from an earnings perspective, IMO, because what are the margins? Is there really much cost to these revs once the vaccine is proven?

So I ran a quick scenario:

$2.5B sales w a 60% margin (???). $1.5B. If I throw out my somewhat random 20% probability ratio again, that’s $0.75/sh.

18 P/E (conservative) gives a valuation of $13.50/sh.

You can play w the numbers and get any valuation you want. But it’s interesting that 3 back of the napkin calcs were in the same range.

Question is, would the world see this as a $5B company?


Fun to think if that would happen, since at 120MM shares (? after all the deals paid), each GNBT share would essentially “own” about 3 shares of NGIO. And a hard asset would be hard to ignore. So at $13/NGIO share, the implied value of a GNBT share becomes $39 on NGIO value alone.

I’m not writing any checks yet, but it’s fun to think what could happen if things come together nicely...