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Posted On: 09/30/2020 5:31:43 PM
Post# of 155616
Havasu, all,
One of the good news of the conference call today is the number of deaths (I don't mean this in a disrespectful way). At 23% of total they seem normal for the total. The question is: did Leronlimab have a lower percentage ?? At these values the p-value for similar number of deaths (50% reduction) goes down significantly:
As it has already been indicated 23/22 (placebo/LL) deaths will produce p-value of 0.00648 (2-Tailed).
If we get say, 24/21 (placebo/LL) deaths we have p=0.002258
This will stop the trial imo.
However, this would indicate that placebo produced 37% and LL 16%, not an easy target to hit (a 56% reduction).
Mi thinking is that a reasonable reduction in mortality will compel FDA to either approve or agree to EUA. I don't think they can disregard, for example, a reduction of 30% in death rate.
Also, NP mentioned that now it is more like 50 ??. In any case, these numbers will give us more possibility to demonstrate that LL works (if it does).
As I said before, the name of the game of investing in Biotech is to go through a clinical trial and see if it works. There is no way around it.
Well, we are here, regardless of what we think about management, etc, they brought us here and we are close to the real test, be in interim or full P3. If the numbers print as above we will be up-up up and away ...
So, anytime now we will wake up to news.
One of the good news of the conference call today is the number of deaths (I don't mean this in a disrespectful way). At 23% of total they seem normal for the total. The question is: did Leronlimab have a lower percentage ?? At these values the p-value for similar number of deaths (50% reduction) goes down significantly:
As it has already been indicated 23/22 (placebo/LL) deaths will produce p-value of 0.00648 (2-Tailed).
If we get say, 24/21 (placebo/LL) deaths we have p=0.002258
This will stop the trial imo.
However, this would indicate that placebo produced 37% and LL 16%, not an easy target to hit (a 56% reduction).
Mi thinking is that a reasonable reduction in mortality will compel FDA to either approve or agree to EUA. I don't think they can disregard, for example, a reduction of 30% in death rate.
Also, NP mentioned that now it is more like 50 ??. In any case, these numbers will give us more possibility to demonstrate that LL works (if it does).
As I said before, the name of the game of investing in Biotech is to go through a clinical trial and see if it works. There is no way around it.
Well, we are here, regardless of what we think about management, etc, they brought us here and we are close to the real test, be in interim or full P3. If the numbers print as above we will be up-up up and away ...
So, anytime now we will wake up to news.
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