Your analogy is missing one vital piece of information. The turtle that is Leronlimab, is like no other turtle that was ever created before it.

Leronlimab's path is not some random act of nature, where the odds are the odds.

Leronlimab will change the odds. Its very existence changes the game.

So, unless you want to re-write the analogy to include a turtle that is the size of a whale, and the teeth of a shark, its not analogous.