I find it very difficult to believe that the CD10 m/m trial will not have outstanding topline results with statistical significance across most endpoints. So far we know that:

At day 3 patients showed improvement in primary endpoint (cough, fever, body aches, dyspnea).

Improvement on NEWS scale for clinical worsening day 3,7 & 14

Fewer patients requiring oxygen and mechanical ventilation.

64% few SAEs.

I am not a statistician, but I struggle to find a way that these endpoints can be achieved (other endpoint data not yet determined, rather failing to meet endpoints) without statistical significance.

Patients improve or worsen clinically. Symptoms at time of enrollment determine mild/moderate or severe/critical status. The media is riddled with accounts of mildly or moderately ill patients who then died. Herman Cain was improving and now he has unfortunately died.

I know we need to take China’s data with a grain or more of salt, but account from Wuhan showed:

“During a follow up of 28 days, 720 patients (71.50%) had recovered or were symptomatically stable, 222 patients (22.05%) had progressed to severe disease, 22 patients (2.18%) had progressed to the critically ill stage and 43 patients (4.27%) had died.”

While many patients in both arms will get better, many will not. I do not see patient with SAEs resolving completely at 14 days.

We can address the data when there is data to address.

Let’s check back in a week