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Posted On: 07/06/2020 3:55:34 PM
Post# of 72440
Most IPIX investors believe it is a given that we will soon hear positive news regarding government grant funding, scientific peer review papers and the initiation of Brilacidin FDA CV19 human trials. Investors will celebrate a nice bump upwards of IPIX SP but then the question becomes: What will the value of Brilacidin be longer term if human trials are successful for CV19? I decided to expand on post #65244 and drill down with a more detailed example using even more conservative estimates making the following assumptions:
1) Brilacidin becomes the #1 CV19 Treatment.
2) A market of a least 16.4M people are treated per year.
3) A pricing model that is much lower than Remdesivir and still allows a net profit of $300 per patient course of treatment.
4) A very conservative 20 PE ratio
5) $246.00 IPIX share price on just B-CV19 ALONE.
1) Brilacidin becomes the #1 CV19 Treatment.
Multiple trials and lab testing collectively support Brilacidin as a unique 3 in 1 combination—antiviral, immuno/anti-inflammatory, and antimicrobial—anti-COVID-19 therapeutic candidate. Brilacidin’s unique antiviral properties include blocking the viruses’ method of entry into healthy human cells, inhibiting viral proliferation and act as a virucidal agent killing the virus on contact. Brilacidin’s immumo/anti-inflammatory properties will prevent the human cytokine storm syndrome which is a major cause of CV19 fatalities.
What IF Brilacidin even works HALF as good in actual human trials as it has in the outstanding RBL lab testing results? A 48% viral load reduction (half of the 97% seen in the labs) along with the unique combination of having anti-infective properties and immuno/anti-inflammatory properties would catapult Brilacidin to the very top as the Gold Standard for CV19 treatment. This is THE KEY assumption and milestone but an important data point beyond the excellent lab results for CV19 is the safety and efficacy demonstrated in testing multiple instances with over 460 patients tested, most using the same delivery system used in multiple B-ABSSSI trials. Brilacidin would significantly leapfrog past the current lead CV19 treatment Remdesivir and become the CV19 treatment of choice.
2) A market of a least 16.4M people treated per year.
What is the market potential if Brilacidin becomes the CV19 treatment of choice? I am assuming that if there was a successful CV19 treatment available that the US government would at a minimum want to secure enough drug to treat at least 5% of the population for each of the next 5 years. This 5 year commitment with a U.S population of 328M people would require purchasing enough drug to treat 16.4M people per year. In the US confirmed CV19 cases are approaching 3M people in just a few months with over 130,000 deaths and these statistics have been established with inadequate testing in an environment where a vast majority of the country is practicing social distancing. An effective CV19 treatment would give confidence to the American public to return to a more normal lifestyle which would have a dramatic impact on the economy. CV19 cases would increase significantly as social distancing dramatically is phased out as the public realizes that CV19 is not the same threat with an effective treatment available in the event they get the CV19 virus. An effective treatment would create significant savings in reducing and in many cases eliminating the need for hospital stays. A recent report by FAIR Health estimated a 6 day stay would cost an un-insured American $73,300 or around $12k per day. Worldwide there has been 11.5M confirmed CV19 cases and 535k deaths. IMO if Brilaciidn becomes the Gold Standard for CV19 there will be a strong worldwide demand for the drug. The example of 16.4M people treated is 5% of US population or less than one quarter of a percent of 7.8B people worldwide. IMO this worldwide demand would more than support any available inventory of Brilacidin if there is availability beyond the exampled US stockpile.
3) A pricing model that is much lower than Remdesivir and still allows a net profit of $300 per patient course of treatment.
What might a pricing and profitability model look like for a CV19 Gold Standard Treatment? Proposed Remdesivir pricing is $2,340 - $3,100 per patient ($390 per vial with a 6 treatment protocol). I have NO IDEA what IPIX’s actual Brilacidin pricing model will be for CV19 but with less dosing required, I would EXPECT Brilacidin to not only be a more effective treatment but will MOST LIKELY be a much less expensive per patient course of treatment protocol for CV19 compared to the current lead CV19 treatment Remdesivir. In the following example I am using an AVERAGE course of treatment for B-CV19 as 3 IV’s per patient. I am assuming some mild cases would only require 1 or 2 IV’s and some serious patient cases may need 4 or 5 IV’s.
Having NO IDEA what the pricing model, dosing protocol or profit margins will be, a potential revenue or earnings model is at best a WAG. With that said let’s assume COGS for each Brilacidin vial is $100 which includes manufacturing, shipping and handling. Let’s assume an average of a 3 treatment protocol per patient for Brilacidin course of treatment for CV19. Let’s assume Leo decides to price Brilacidin at a very low price point of $200 per vial or $600 revenue per patient protocol with a profit of $300 per patient. In this example Brilacidin would cost 1/4 the price of a Remdesivir course of treatment. This example has a very low price point but has a margin of error whereas IPIX could easily maintain the same $300 profit per patient course of treatment even if COGS is higher with a corresponding increase in sale price. The profit margins could also be much higher than my example as well which would further increase IPIX’s bottom line and therefore further increase IPIX SP.
4) A conservative 20 PE ratio
Consider the growth projections for IPIX once funding is no longer an issue. Brilacidin as a Pan-Coronavirus treatment of choice for many viral applications, enormous opportunities in B-IBD Oral, B-OM, B-Nebulizer for respiratory, B-Derma, B-ABSSI (with a $1B DRIVE-AB award), and the advancement of Kevetrin in the very lucrative cancer market. A 20 PE ratio is a ridiculously conservative estimate considering the above growth opportunities.
5) $246.00 IPIX share price on just B-CV19 ALONE.
If you use the extremely conservative pricing example from above it equates to enormous shareholder value. An assumption is that IPIX’s current annual expenses outside of CV19 COGS is $15M/yr or less so the vast majority of net CV19 earnings would go directly to the bottom line. Example above $600 revenue or $300 in net earnings per patient course of treatment would equal $300M in net earnings per 1M patients treated. The U.S population is 328M people. What if the US government wanted to order enough Brilacidin to treat 5% of the US population each year for the next 5 years or so? That would be 16.4M people/year x $600 in revenue or $300 earnings per average patient protocol= $4.92B in earnings per year. (Note that one analyst estimated Gilead’s revenue on Remdesivir at $2.4B/month or $28.8B/year in comparison). Let’s assume a 400M OS count. That equates to $12.30 per share per year in earnings x 20 PE = $246.00 IPIX share price on just B-CV19 ALONE. (Double that number for a more likely 40 PE for a high growth company with the leading drug in a high growth segment). Also note this example is for the US Market ONLY. CV19 is a worldwide crisis. The above numbers seem huge but they are miniscule compared to what CV19 is costing in both human lives and in destroying worldwide economies.
I have done similar napkin math in the past separately for B-OM adding $8+/share (post #61198 dated 11/28/19) and B-IBD Oral adding $17-$46/share (post #62212 dated 2/13/20) and these values would be tacked on to SP as each instance is approved and begins to kick in revenue and earnings. Also note that once B-ABSSSI is approved it would qualify for a $1B DRIVE-AB award. These non CV19 revenues are assuming partnership agreements with Big Pharma (BP) and revenue would be in the form of royalties. IMO B-CV19 will not require a BP partner especially in the US where the US government will drive FDA trials and manufacturing costs or needed personnel will be funded by US grant funding.
I have no idea how far off any of my assumptions are but Leo does. Once grant funding and human trials are initiated, the ultimate milestone will be if human CV19 trials are successful or not. If they are indeed successful we will be sitting on extremely valuable IPIX shares. Every investor should run their own set of what ifs and assumptions and come up with their own numbers.
Remember that there were 150M YES vs 14M NO votes on increasing Authorized Shares validating that a very large majority of $IPIX shares are STRONGLY held by investors that believe in $IPIX science and trust Leo to continue to wisely manage financial resources of stock issuance required for $IPIX science advancement. Compare your own math to what the soft bashers quote as a fair buyout price for IPIX. Only Leo knows what the proper assumptions are but the criminals own calculators and can do basic math. The criminals who continue to compress IPIX SP are in panic mode trying to figure out an exit plan that can only be implemented when Longs decide to sell them real shares for the criminals to cover their deep naked position.
The above SP estimates do not include major increases in IPIX SP that will take place once IPIX Up-Lists off the criminally controlled OTX and on to a more enforced market. Institutional market demand once IPIX SP is over $5 is also not factored in. IMO a major short squeeze will take place between $3 and $20 by the criminal naked shorts that will also drive IPIX SP much higher and closer to fair market value. These factors are not included in this example but will have definite positive effects long term on IPIX SP. What do you think the GOLD STANDARD for CV19 treatment will be worth?
1) Brilacidin becomes the #1 CV19 Treatment.
2) A market of a least 16.4M people are treated per year.
3) A pricing model that is much lower than Remdesivir and still allows a net profit of $300 per patient course of treatment.
4) A very conservative 20 PE ratio
5) $246.00 IPIX share price on just B-CV19 ALONE.
1) Brilacidin becomes the #1 CV19 Treatment.
Multiple trials and lab testing collectively support Brilacidin as a unique 3 in 1 combination—antiviral, immuno/anti-inflammatory, and antimicrobial—anti-COVID-19 therapeutic candidate. Brilacidin’s unique antiviral properties include blocking the viruses’ method of entry into healthy human cells, inhibiting viral proliferation and act as a virucidal agent killing the virus on contact. Brilacidin’s immumo/anti-inflammatory properties will prevent the human cytokine storm syndrome which is a major cause of CV19 fatalities.
What IF Brilacidin even works HALF as good in actual human trials as it has in the outstanding RBL lab testing results? A 48% viral load reduction (half of the 97% seen in the labs) along with the unique combination of having anti-infective properties and immuno/anti-inflammatory properties would catapult Brilacidin to the very top as the Gold Standard for CV19 treatment. This is THE KEY assumption and milestone but an important data point beyond the excellent lab results for CV19 is the safety and efficacy demonstrated in testing multiple instances with over 460 patients tested, most using the same delivery system used in multiple B-ABSSSI trials. Brilacidin would significantly leapfrog past the current lead CV19 treatment Remdesivir and become the CV19 treatment of choice.
2) A market of a least 16.4M people treated per year.
What is the market potential if Brilacidin becomes the CV19 treatment of choice? I am assuming that if there was a successful CV19 treatment available that the US government would at a minimum want to secure enough drug to treat at least 5% of the population for each of the next 5 years. This 5 year commitment with a U.S population of 328M people would require purchasing enough drug to treat 16.4M people per year. In the US confirmed CV19 cases are approaching 3M people in just a few months with over 130,000 deaths and these statistics have been established with inadequate testing in an environment where a vast majority of the country is practicing social distancing. An effective CV19 treatment would give confidence to the American public to return to a more normal lifestyle which would have a dramatic impact on the economy. CV19 cases would increase significantly as social distancing dramatically is phased out as the public realizes that CV19 is not the same threat with an effective treatment available in the event they get the CV19 virus. An effective treatment would create significant savings in reducing and in many cases eliminating the need for hospital stays. A recent report by FAIR Health estimated a 6 day stay would cost an un-insured American $73,300 or around $12k per day. Worldwide there has been 11.5M confirmed CV19 cases and 535k deaths. IMO if Brilaciidn becomes the Gold Standard for CV19 there will be a strong worldwide demand for the drug. The example of 16.4M people treated is 5% of US population or less than one quarter of a percent of 7.8B people worldwide. IMO this worldwide demand would more than support any available inventory of Brilacidin if there is availability beyond the exampled US stockpile.
3) A pricing model that is much lower than Remdesivir and still allows a net profit of $300 per patient course of treatment.
What might a pricing and profitability model look like for a CV19 Gold Standard Treatment? Proposed Remdesivir pricing is $2,340 - $3,100 per patient ($390 per vial with a 6 treatment protocol). I have NO IDEA what IPIX’s actual Brilacidin pricing model will be for CV19 but with less dosing required, I would EXPECT Brilacidin to not only be a more effective treatment but will MOST LIKELY be a much less expensive per patient course of treatment protocol for CV19 compared to the current lead CV19 treatment Remdesivir. In the following example I am using an AVERAGE course of treatment for B-CV19 as 3 IV’s per patient. I am assuming some mild cases would only require 1 or 2 IV’s and some serious patient cases may need 4 or 5 IV’s.
Having NO IDEA what the pricing model, dosing protocol or profit margins will be, a potential revenue or earnings model is at best a WAG. With that said let’s assume COGS for each Brilacidin vial is $100 which includes manufacturing, shipping and handling. Let’s assume an average of a 3 treatment protocol per patient for Brilacidin course of treatment for CV19. Let’s assume Leo decides to price Brilacidin at a very low price point of $200 per vial or $600 revenue per patient protocol with a profit of $300 per patient. In this example Brilacidin would cost 1/4 the price of a Remdesivir course of treatment. This example has a very low price point but has a margin of error whereas IPIX could easily maintain the same $300 profit per patient course of treatment even if COGS is higher with a corresponding increase in sale price. The profit margins could also be much higher than my example as well which would further increase IPIX’s bottom line and therefore further increase IPIX SP.
4) A conservative 20 PE ratio
Consider the growth projections for IPIX once funding is no longer an issue. Brilacidin as a Pan-Coronavirus treatment of choice for many viral applications, enormous opportunities in B-IBD Oral, B-OM, B-Nebulizer for respiratory, B-Derma, B-ABSSI (with a $1B DRIVE-AB award), and the advancement of Kevetrin in the very lucrative cancer market. A 20 PE ratio is a ridiculously conservative estimate considering the above growth opportunities.
5) $246.00 IPIX share price on just B-CV19 ALONE.
If you use the extremely conservative pricing example from above it equates to enormous shareholder value. An assumption is that IPIX’s current annual expenses outside of CV19 COGS is $15M/yr or less so the vast majority of net CV19 earnings would go directly to the bottom line. Example above $600 revenue or $300 in net earnings per patient course of treatment would equal $300M in net earnings per 1M patients treated. The U.S population is 328M people. What if the US government wanted to order enough Brilacidin to treat 5% of the US population each year for the next 5 years or so? That would be 16.4M people/year x $600 in revenue or $300 earnings per average patient protocol= $4.92B in earnings per year. (Note that one analyst estimated Gilead’s revenue on Remdesivir at $2.4B/month or $28.8B/year in comparison). Let’s assume a 400M OS count. That equates to $12.30 per share per year in earnings x 20 PE = $246.00 IPIX share price on just B-CV19 ALONE. (Double that number for a more likely 40 PE for a high growth company with the leading drug in a high growth segment). Also note this example is for the US Market ONLY. CV19 is a worldwide crisis. The above numbers seem huge but they are miniscule compared to what CV19 is costing in both human lives and in destroying worldwide economies.
I have done similar napkin math in the past separately for B-OM adding $8+/share (post #61198 dated 11/28/19) and B-IBD Oral adding $17-$46/share (post #62212 dated 2/13/20) and these values would be tacked on to SP as each instance is approved and begins to kick in revenue and earnings. Also note that once B-ABSSSI is approved it would qualify for a $1B DRIVE-AB award. These non CV19 revenues are assuming partnership agreements with Big Pharma (BP) and revenue would be in the form of royalties. IMO B-CV19 will not require a BP partner especially in the US where the US government will drive FDA trials and manufacturing costs or needed personnel will be funded by US grant funding.
I have no idea how far off any of my assumptions are but Leo does. Once grant funding and human trials are initiated, the ultimate milestone will be if human CV19 trials are successful or not. If they are indeed successful we will be sitting on extremely valuable IPIX shares. Every investor should run their own set of what ifs and assumptions and come up with their own numbers.
Remember that there were 150M YES vs 14M NO votes on increasing Authorized Shares validating that a very large majority of $IPIX shares are STRONGLY held by investors that believe in $IPIX science and trust Leo to continue to wisely manage financial resources of stock issuance required for $IPIX science advancement. Compare your own math to what the soft bashers quote as a fair buyout price for IPIX. Only Leo knows what the proper assumptions are but the criminals own calculators and can do basic math. The criminals who continue to compress IPIX SP are in panic mode trying to figure out an exit plan that can only be implemented when Longs decide to sell them real shares for the criminals to cover their deep naked position.
The above SP estimates do not include major increases in IPIX SP that will take place once IPIX Up-Lists off the criminally controlled OTX and on to a more enforced market. Institutional market demand once IPIX SP is over $5 is also not factored in. IMO a major short squeeze will take place between $3 and $20 by the criminal naked shorts that will also drive IPIX SP much higher and closer to fair market value. These factors are not included in this example but will have definite positive effects long term on IPIX SP. What do you think the GOLD STANDARD for CV19 treatment will be worth?
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