USAF Tanker Fleet Recapitalization Update - June 9, 2020.

"The U.S. Air Force will delay a full-rate production milestone for the KC-46 aerial refueling tanker to the end of fiscal 2024 to correspond with a fix for one of the aircraft’s key systems, the service announced late Monday."

Full article from Defense News here:

https://www.defensenews.com/air/2020/06/09/th...the-kc-46/

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In my opinion, as I have been saying for 18 months, it is ever more likely that the USAF will not order the full quantity of KC-46A originally planned under the KC-X - let alone follow-on orders under KC-Y - recapitalization programs for the US DoD tanker fleet.

It is extremely likely - especially since the Royal Air Force has successfully contracted out its entire tanker mission - that the USAF will go for a part contractor owned / contractor operated solution and / or a contractor owned / reservist operated solution.

Proven Model - Airtanker UK for the RAF- 14 aircraft for 27 years:

https://vimeo.com/77795410

https://vimeo.com/77794320

https://vimeo.com/104490792

Solicitation for a US TRANSCOM / USAF Air Mobility Command contract is due to be promulgated in June 2020.

My best guess is that Airbus might pitch a long-term solution using the current best available tanker worldwide - the A330 MRTT - either new build or converted surplus civilian A330. Either production choice would have a lead time in years.

Whilst waiting years for those to be built, Airbus might subcontract part of the mission to existing military tanker owners or buy their aircraft - or existing owners like Omega and $TMPS might get smaller contracts up to the limit of their fuel off-load / tanker availability capability..

30% of the USAF mission is for "hose and drogue" tankers like the $TMPS Tristars do.

100 ARW KC-135 from RAF Mildenhall, UK refueling RAF F-35B using the "hose and drogue" method.

https://www.mildenhall.af.mil/News/Video/videoid/710322/