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Or: with the data I have, publicly available

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You can even come to a reasonable conclusion without any patient data. I knew leronlimab would work in extreme influenza because the mechanism of action reliably predicted it would work against the pathologies that caused death. When they announced trials for COVID-19 same main pathology, same response.

When they announced remdesivir I gave it a 50/50 chance. As an ANTA antiviral either it would break the RNA cycle of COVID-19 or not. From past testing I leaned against its success.