All Eyes on Gilead’s Readout of Remdesivir for COVID-19

This was posted on 4/9, one day before the NEMJ report on a smaller study - Compassionate Use of Remdesivir for Patients with Severe Covid-19

It would be interesting if the following statements would be revised after that NEMJ publication.

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Reading the tea leaves, analysts with Barclays think there is only a 20% chance that two of the clinical trials being run in China, one in mild-to-moderate cases and another in severely ill, will succeed.

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according to clinicaltrials.gov, the remdesivir trial page was updated, changing the size of a study in severe patients from 400 to 2,400, and the moderate patient trial from 600 to 1,600....

RBC believes.... that remdesivir, like other COVID-19 drugs in development, would be more likely to have incremental effects in specific populations vs. proving to be a panacea.

Umer Raffat, an analyst at Evercore ISI,..the likelihood of success in the moderate-patient trial has increased with the new endpoints, suggesting patients might be recovering more quickly, although it may not have a major impact on how quickly patients are discharged from the hospital, which was a previous primary endpoint, “but remdesivir likely did improve patient status while in hospital.”

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