There were other modeling estimates that were more grim. This London report is what finally got Boris Johnson off the dime and to start taking this seriously. With remediation efforts no one any longer thinks it will be this bad, and even the 200,000 US figure is considered high. Still, there is a pretty wide range in play.

From the report:

The Imperial College London group reported that if nothing was done by governments and individuals and the pandemic remained uncontrolled, 510,000 would die in Britain and 2.2 million in the United States over the course of the outbreak.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/a..._story.htm