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Posted On: 03/02/2020 12:12:21 AM
Post# of 155124
You forgot “IMO”, but don’t worry, I won’t report you to anyone.
1. The estimated death rate of SARS increased as the outbreak progressed, because more patients were dying. The estimate was 6-7% in the final months and was ultimately found to be 9.6% once all data was analyzed.
2. There were far fewer cases of SARS over the 9 months of the outbreak then with the current corona virus (6,500 or so). Statistics are harder to calculate with smaller population sizes, but with nearly 90,000 reported corona virus cases, mostly in China, the experts you question have a better idea of the real fatality rate.
3. It’s much more likely that the death rate for the corona virus will be lower than expected because of unreported cases. The U.S. has had 80 confirmed cases so far with only 2 deaths. If that rate continues it would match that of the 2-3% being suggested by the “experts. The corona case involving the high school student in Washington also proves that there are going to be many undiagnosed cases. His corona strain matched the strain of the 1st patient diagnosed in Washington but they (epidemiologist) haven’t determined how/where he got the virus. This means that the virus has spread through a number of people (who apparently haven’t been diagnosed with the corona virus) before getting to him.
4. I do admit that China is the one variable in this debate that none of us can properly predict/describe. They could be underreporting deaths to further decrease fear/anger, but if they’re doing that, then we may never know the exact rate.
1. The estimated death rate of SARS increased as the outbreak progressed, because more patients were dying. The estimate was 6-7% in the final months and was ultimately found to be 9.6% once all data was analyzed.
2. There were far fewer cases of SARS over the 9 months of the outbreak then with the current corona virus (6,500 or so). Statistics are harder to calculate with smaller population sizes, but with nearly 90,000 reported corona virus cases, mostly in China, the experts you question have a better idea of the real fatality rate.
3. It’s much more likely that the death rate for the corona virus will be lower than expected because of unreported cases. The U.S. has had 80 confirmed cases so far with only 2 deaths. If that rate continues it would match that of the 2-3% being suggested by the “experts. The corona case involving the high school student in Washington also proves that there are going to be many undiagnosed cases. His corona strain matched the strain of the 1st patient diagnosed in Washington but they (epidemiologist) haven’t determined how/where he got the virus. This means that the virus has spread through a number of people (who apparently haven’t been diagnosed with the corona virus) before getting to him.
4. I do admit that China is the one variable in this debate that none of us can properly predict/describe. They could be underreporting deaths to further decrease fear/anger, but if they’re doing that, then we may never know the exact rate.
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