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Posted On: 02/25/2020 10:20:37 AM
Post# of 153963
I must admit to being a bit confused regarding the unit pricing implied at 20:00 of the Money Talk Station interview.
http://www.moneytalkstation.com/cytodyn-dr-nadar-pourhassan/
Here Nader states there is interest from multiple companies in different countries to purchase every bit of commercial product that is available.
He says:
- There are around 24k vials available now
- There will be 100k vials from Samsung in a couple of months or so
- And another 500k vials from Samsung by the end of the year
Then he states that total amount they "could have sold" is in excess of $100M. I interpret this statement to mean: The total 2020 revenue from the sale of available product is in excess of $100M. Therefore, 624k vials is equal to or greater than $100M
Conservatively speaking, 100M divided by 624k equates to $160 per vial. I don't know how many weekly injections are supported by a single vial -- or how many vials would be required to support a single patient, for a single year.
I realize these these are pre-approval, clinical-stage product prices -- but I'm trying to reconcile this single vial unit pricing with the footnote on Slide 8 of the recent Investor Presentation January, 2020:
https://content.equisolve.net/_faea7a3a0c9564...n-2020.pdf
"Revenue $$ based on a go-to-market price recommendation of $60,000 per patient per year"
Obviously, there should be a significant (and appropriate) delta between pre- and post- approval unit pricing. And, of course, product destined for clinical testing (which has the potential to not reach endpoint) cannot be priced at post-approval levels -- but it does seem like the unit pricing is quite low.
I would appreciate other points-of-view.
http://www.moneytalkstation.com/cytodyn-dr-nadar-pourhassan/
Here Nader states there is interest from multiple companies in different countries to purchase every bit of commercial product that is available.
He says:
- There are around 24k vials available now
- There will be 100k vials from Samsung in a couple of months or so
- And another 500k vials from Samsung by the end of the year
Then he states that total amount they "could have sold" is in excess of $100M. I interpret this statement to mean: The total 2020 revenue from the sale of available product is in excess of $100M. Therefore, 624k vials is equal to or greater than $100M
Conservatively speaking, 100M divided by 624k equates to $160 per vial. I don't know how many weekly injections are supported by a single vial -- or how many vials would be required to support a single patient, for a single year.
I realize these these are pre-approval, clinical-stage product prices -- but I'm trying to reconcile this single vial unit pricing with the footnote on Slide 8 of the recent Investor Presentation January, 2020:
https://content.equisolve.net/_faea7a3a0c9564...n-2020.pdf
"Revenue $$ based on a go-to-market price recommendation of $60,000 per patient per year"
Obviously, there should be a significant (and appropriate) delta between pre- and post- approval unit pricing. And, of course, product destined for clinical testing (which has the potential to not reach endpoint) cannot be priced at post-approval levels -- but it does seem like the unit pricing is quite low.
I would appreciate other points-of-view.
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