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Posted On: 02/18/2020 12:27:04 PM
Post# of 36542
RJS's post circa 2006 got me thinking about GNBT past, present and future. The past don't look too good, but the present and future MIGHT make it all better!
With the proposed dividend come Monday, I will have a number of shares of NGIO, which is likely to be listed on the NAS in the next 30 - 60 days.
If NGIO opens at $4 per share, I will have recouped 55% of ALL money I have invested in GNBT since 2006, when I first invested for Oralyn and the ii-key tech with bird flu. If the price rises to $6, the percentage I will have recouped rises to 80% of all money invested over the 14 years. If it rises to $10, I will have made 35% on all money that I've invested in GNBT since 2006. Not a great return for 14 years, but a return none the less.
But here's the IMPORTANT part...those calculations assume GNBT goes to $0 at the same time. This is almost an impossibility, since GNBT will own somewhere between 50 and 70% of NGIO, depending on how they allocate shares to finance other operations. Therefore, if I make the ultraconservative assumption that with NGIO trading at $4, GNBT will trade at $1, I now have recouped all money invested in GNBT over 14 years, and made an 5% profit on that money.
If NGIO is at $6 and GNBT is at $3, I will have made 100% on all money (a 5.1% annual return over 14 years).
At $10 for NGIO and $5 for GNBT, I will have made about 250% on the invested money, translating to an approximate 7% annual return for the 14 years. In reality, the return is actually much higher, since I had written off the money as a sunk cost 3 years ago.
Not bad for money that I thought 3 years ago was gone...forever. It still might be, considering that this could all fall apart in the next 30 - 60 days. But the odds of some portion of this succeeding vs it totally failing sure appear to be in our favor.
Back when the 1 for 1 dividend was announced in 2019, I stated that if we all wait until Thanksgiving, we will all know a lot more about GNBT and I thought we'd be very pleased with what we learned. Now with the 5 month dividend delay and terms modification, that date has been pushed back to around May 1. So I will restate my position - come Memorial Day, we will all know a lot more about this company and what it's true potential is. And I still am optimistic that it will be very good for investors, not to mention diabetes, wound care and cancer patients.
With the proposed dividend come Monday, I will have a number of shares of NGIO, which is likely to be listed on the NAS in the next 30 - 60 days.
If NGIO opens at $4 per share, I will have recouped 55% of ALL money I have invested in GNBT since 2006, when I first invested for Oralyn and the ii-key tech with bird flu. If the price rises to $6, the percentage I will have recouped rises to 80% of all money invested over the 14 years. If it rises to $10, I will have made 35% on all money that I've invested in GNBT since 2006. Not a great return for 14 years, but a return none the less.
But here's the IMPORTANT part...those calculations assume GNBT goes to $0 at the same time. This is almost an impossibility, since GNBT will own somewhere between 50 and 70% of NGIO, depending on how they allocate shares to finance other operations. Therefore, if I make the ultraconservative assumption that with NGIO trading at $4, GNBT will trade at $1, I now have recouped all money invested in GNBT over 14 years, and made an 5% profit on that money.
If NGIO is at $6 and GNBT is at $3, I will have made 100% on all money (a 5.1% annual return over 14 years).
At $10 for NGIO and $5 for GNBT, I will have made about 250% on the invested money, translating to an approximate 7% annual return for the 14 years. In reality, the return is actually much higher, since I had written off the money as a sunk cost 3 years ago.
Not bad for money that I thought 3 years ago was gone...forever. It still might be, considering that this could all fall apart in the next 30 - 60 days. But the odds of some portion of this succeeding vs it totally failing sure appear to be in our favor.
Back when the 1 for 1 dividend was announced in 2019, I stated that if we all wait until Thanksgiving, we will all know a lot more about GNBT and I thought we'd be very pleased with what we learned. Now with the 5 month dividend delay and terms modification, that date has been pushed back to around May 1. So I will restate my position - come Memorial Day, we will all know a lot more about this company and what it's true potential is. And I still am optimistic that it will be very good for investors, not to mention diabetes, wound care and cancer patients.
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