All-righty, then. Let's start the week off with some fun speculation!
Here's my take on a simple valuation after a successful div, S-1 funding, and NGIO spin.
Part I - GNBT value coming from NGIO holdings
- NGIO spin value - $600MM
- NGIO shares - 200MM
- NGIO spin SP - $3
- GNBT ownership % of NGIO - 85%
- Implied value of GNBT-owned NGIO shares - $510MM
- GNBT share count assumption: 70MM post-div + 10MM S-1 shares
- Implied GNBT value/sh coming from NGIO - $510MM/80MM = $6.38
- OTC reduction factor translating thru to actual GNBT market value - 65%
- GNBT share value attributable initially to NGIO spin - $6.38 x .65 = $4.14
Part II - GNBT EPS-based value
- GNBT sales predicted by Joe for first 12 months after S-1 funding - $250MM
- GNBT sales for first 12 months factored for this exercise based on recent history - $125MM
- Net margin assumption for ramp-up period (12 months after S-1) - 15%
- NI assumed for first 12 months - $125MM x .15 = $18.75MM
- EPS expected for GNBT for first 12 months = $18.75MM/80MM sh = $0.23
- Earnings multiple assumed for a reasonable-growth company w some level of risk - 25X
- Implied value of GNBT based on internal sales - $0.23 x 25 = $5.86
(Yes, I did choose to intentionally ignore the cash from the S-1 in the valuation, as I assume most of it will be put to use to "get the wheels turning", pay off deals, etc.)
Total short-term GNBT SP value based on internal sales + NGIO holdings (after, of course, the assumed success of the div, S-1, and NGIO spin)...
$4.14 + $5.86 = $10.00
Fairly immediate Naz uplist to follow, and we are off...
Wow... I really didn't try to get that to come out to such a nice round number. But it did... so it must be a legit prediction!
I must say that I did feel some of those numbers were pretty conservative. So coming up with a $10 potential SP feels pretty good. Suffice it to say that I'd be pretty damned happy if we see that price in 2020. Hope to see a div announcement this week as our first positive step toward making a scenario like this reality.
Here's my take on a simple valuation after a successful div, S-1 funding, and NGIO spin.
Part I - GNBT value coming from NGIO holdings
- NGIO spin value - $600MM
- NGIO shares - 200MM
- NGIO spin SP - $3
- GNBT ownership % of NGIO - 85%
- Implied value of GNBT-owned NGIO shares - $510MM
- GNBT share count assumption: 70MM post-div + 10MM S-1 shares
- Implied GNBT value/sh coming from NGIO - $510MM/80MM = $6.38
- OTC reduction factor translating thru to actual GNBT market value - 65%
- GNBT share value attributable initially to NGIO spin - $6.38 x .65 = $4.14
Part II - GNBT EPS-based value
- GNBT sales predicted by Joe for first 12 months after S-1 funding - $250MM
- GNBT sales for first 12 months factored for this exercise based on recent history - $125MM
- Net margin assumption for ramp-up period (12 months after S-1) - 15%
- NI assumed for first 12 months - $125MM x .15 = $18.75MM
- EPS expected for GNBT for first 12 months = $18.75MM/80MM sh = $0.23
- Earnings multiple assumed for a reasonable-growth company w some level of risk - 25X
- Implied value of GNBT based on internal sales - $0.23 x 25 = $5.86
(Yes, I did choose to intentionally ignore the cash from the S-1 in the valuation, as I assume most of it will be put to use to "get the wheels turning", pay off deals, etc.)
Total short-term GNBT SP value based on internal sales + NGIO holdings (after, of course, the assumed success of the div, S-1, and NGIO spin)...
$4.14 + $5.86 = $10.00
Fairly immediate Naz uplist to follow, and we are off...
Wow... I really didn't try to get that to come out to such a nice round number. But it did... so it must be a legit prediction!
I must say that I did feel some of those numbers were pretty conservative. So coming up with a $10 potential SP feels pretty good. Suffice it to say that I'd be pretty damned happy if we see that price in 2020. Hope to see a div announcement this week as our first positive step toward making a scenario like this reality.
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