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If Wall Street is where, for better or worse, the forward-looking "creme de la creme" of US society resides, then Democrats may as well pack it in: as Goldman strategist Lilia Peytavin writes, yesterday Goldman Sachs held its annual Global Strategy Conference in London, which was attended by over 250 clients. During two of the sessions the bank surveyed audience members on their views and outlook.

And while Goldman asked a bevy of interesting questions, the most interesting one was "Will President Trump Win A Second Term?" The answer? A whopping majority (87%) of respondents believe so, even though the S&P 500 12-month 25-delta skew stands in its 97th percentile (73th percentile in 3 months), suggesting that demand for equity put options has increased as investors seek protection against a post-election drawdown (then again, Wall Street was convinced that Hillary Clinton would win in 2016 so nobody really has any idea).

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