(Total Views: 544)
Posted On: 01/02/2020 3:01:16 AM
Post# of 154142
Like I said, fast and loose, no spreadsheets.
My "methodology" if you want to call it that -
Rough analysis of percentage of overseas revenue taking into account 40% net sales, lower drug prices and expected patient population - 100% of U.S. revenue.
Pulling up sites with patient populations for the indications I had posted links to here. If Alzheimers, Parkinsons, MS and several other possibles are successful this would increase the valuation.
The rest I calculated in my head based on $35,000 price point. I did this 4 months ago and can't remember what I used for market penetration but it was a fairly low number (20%?). I used a 12x PE ratio.
Reverse engineering it - 700m shares x $300 = 210b market cap.
210b / 12 PE = 17.5b earnings
17.5b earnings / 2 = 8.75b earnings U.S.
This is based on doing our own commercialization. The low market penetration makes this fairly conservative. What the final share price will be is entirely dependent on what deals if any are made and the terms.
For timelines, I expected a ramp-up of trials within one year of revenues with additional approvals within 3 years and the majority or all approved within 8 years.
My "methodology" if you want to call it that -
Rough analysis of percentage of overseas revenue taking into account 40% net sales, lower drug prices and expected patient population - 100% of U.S. revenue.
Pulling up sites with patient populations for the indications I had posted links to here. If Alzheimers, Parkinsons, MS and several other possibles are successful this would increase the valuation.
The rest I calculated in my head based on $35,000 price point. I did this 4 months ago and can't remember what I used for market penetration but it was a fairly low number (20%?). I used a 12x PE ratio.
Reverse engineering it - 700m shares x $300 = 210b market cap.
210b / 12 PE = 17.5b earnings
17.5b earnings / 2 = 8.75b earnings U.S.
This is based on doing our own commercialization. The low market penetration makes this fairly conservative. What the final share price will be is entirely dependent on what deals if any are made and the terms.
For timelines, I expected a ramp-up of trials within one year of revenues with additional approvals within 3 years and the majority or all approved within 8 years.
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