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Posted On: 11/15/2019 4:10:25 PM
Post# of 148936
Re: ClosetInvestor #11022
Using numbers that I found a while back for building a valuation model. All numbers are US only, and I took the numbers at face value from reasonable sources. I never cared about precision here.
Roughly 275k cases of breast cancer annually.
15-20% are tNBC, so we’ll go low (15%) and call that 41,250 cases annually.
About 50% of all breast cancer expresses CCR5, but that’s primarily found in tNBC. So let’s call it 80% of tNBC, plus or minus 10%. Gives us 28,875 to 37,125 cases.
Revenue of $1 billion to $1.3 billion based on annual cost of $35k, $3.4 billion to $4.4 billion with an annual cost of $120k. Assumes 100% penetration since we’re just contemplating market size.
Obviously these numbers are somewhat rough, but the answer is that the market for tNBC alone is big enough to be very, very meaningful.
Roughly 275k cases of breast cancer annually.
15-20% are tNBC, so we’ll go low (15%) and call that 41,250 cases annually.
About 50% of all breast cancer expresses CCR5, but that’s primarily found in tNBC. So let’s call it 80% of tNBC, plus or minus 10%. Gives us 28,875 to 37,125 cases.
Revenue of $1 billion to $1.3 billion based on annual cost of $35k, $3.4 billion to $4.4 billion with an annual cost of $120k. Assumes 100% penetration since we’re just contemplating market size.
Obviously these numbers are somewhat rough, but the answer is that the market for tNBC alone is big enough to be very, very meaningful.
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