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Posted On: 11/08/2019 12:52:16 PM
Post# of 36541
Anybody care to throw out biggest concerns, hopes, expectations (rev guess?) for discussion as we continue to wait for the K?
Doesn't seem like many people like to play these games w me, but I'll start anyway...
1) I hope there is a marked improvement on revs. That won't take much, as we had just over $1MM on the last 10Q. I have a hopeful guesstimate of $8MM for Q4, and I believe that would be HUGE. Deep down, I really think somewhere between Doc's $3MM and my $8MM will be a better guess... $4-5MM? I'd be happy w that, and, of course, higher in the first Q #s in December...
2) I have concerns about the Olaregen buyout payments, as I feel this is our true hope for significant operational cash flow in the next couple of Qs, and I'm very anxious to see what has changed since the last 10Q. If you look thru the notes at the end of the last 10Q, we were late on some of the scheduled cash payments, and they were renegotiated. Any stock payments have to make up the difference between $2.50/sh and the current stock price... ouch. Hopefully Olaregen sees the importance of their rev input into the current phase of the Grand Plan and wants to continue to renegotiate/be patient instead of turning the screws on GNBT. If they want to, they can claw back ownership % due to missed payments... Seeing one or 2 of these "~$10MM" licensing deals would be huge.
3) I am still concerned about the Net Tangible Assets uplist requirement. On the last 10Q, we were ($34MM), and the Naz requires +$2MM for the $2 listing. Debt has been retired, but a $36MM change in one Q is a big number. All the intangibles (Goodwill, etc) on the books really weigh this number down... The good news is that if we don't make the $2 listing, this is not a factor in the $3 or higher listings.
4) Will NGIO really add "hundreds of millions" to the GNBT balance sheet? Anyone have any experience w this sort of thing in the health care field? How much can we realistically expect to garner based on successful Ph I trials and Ph II trials just getting underway? I'm hopeful that MRK is interested in throwing a measley $100MM or more into the pot on what they've seen so far...
Obviously this would be huge for GNBT as well as those of us who were around for the 1:4 gift from Joe. I realize we won't get much concrete info on this for a few weeks. However, maybe there will be some clues when we see the offer from GNBT for us to buy additional warrants/shares before the listing (in the coming days). I honestly feel an injection from the NGIO spin is the only way we achieve uplisting this calendar year, if the Naz is unable to make an exception for the $2 rule for us.
5) If we don't get an uplist in the next month or so, I think we need to request some financial estimates for the current fiscal year from Joe and team. (If we do uplist, I'll presume analysts will demand this from them) If they want to list/play w the big Cos, we need to communicate expectations that they should put some target numbers "out there" for us to shoot for and measure them against.
In my opinion, this should realistically include, at a minimum: revenue estimates for the remaining Qs/fiscal year (by business line - Excellagen, MSO, AZ, etc.), fiscal-year goals for timing/$s from Excellagen licensing rollout, short-term goals for rationalizing G&A expenses that have gone up w the acquisitions, a target date for being Operating Cash Flow positive, MSO rollout goals (particularly in the face of a failure to uplist promptly, if that occurs), etc.
We should also receive announcements when significant sales events happen (McKesson checks?), as revs are paramount right now.
I think this is fair and reasonable as the company leaves this "initial" acquisition phase and starts to ramp up operations. We can then revisit these numbers a year from now to see how we are performing.
That's some of what's on my mind...
As Mike Myers used to say on Coffee Talk... "Discuss..."
Doesn't seem like many people like to play these games w me, but I'll start anyway...
1) I hope there is a marked improvement on revs. That won't take much, as we had just over $1MM on the last 10Q. I have a hopeful guesstimate of $8MM for Q4, and I believe that would be HUGE. Deep down, I really think somewhere between Doc's $3MM and my $8MM will be a better guess... $4-5MM? I'd be happy w that, and, of course, higher in the first Q #s in December...
2) I have concerns about the Olaregen buyout payments, as I feel this is our true hope for significant operational cash flow in the next couple of Qs, and I'm very anxious to see what has changed since the last 10Q. If you look thru the notes at the end of the last 10Q, we were late on some of the scheduled cash payments, and they were renegotiated. Any stock payments have to make up the difference between $2.50/sh and the current stock price... ouch. Hopefully Olaregen sees the importance of their rev input into the current phase of the Grand Plan and wants to continue to renegotiate/be patient instead of turning the screws on GNBT. If they want to, they can claw back ownership % due to missed payments... Seeing one or 2 of these "~$10MM" licensing deals would be huge.
3) I am still concerned about the Net Tangible Assets uplist requirement. On the last 10Q, we were ($34MM), and the Naz requires +$2MM for the $2 listing. Debt has been retired, but a $36MM change in one Q is a big number. All the intangibles (Goodwill, etc) on the books really weigh this number down... The good news is that if we don't make the $2 listing, this is not a factor in the $3 or higher listings.
4) Will NGIO really add "hundreds of millions" to the GNBT balance sheet? Anyone have any experience w this sort of thing in the health care field? How much can we realistically expect to garner based on successful Ph I trials and Ph II trials just getting underway? I'm hopeful that MRK is interested in throwing a measley $100MM or more into the pot on what they've seen so far...
Obviously this would be huge for GNBT as well as those of us who were around for the 1:4 gift from Joe. I realize we won't get much concrete info on this for a few weeks. However, maybe there will be some clues when we see the offer from GNBT for us to buy additional warrants/shares before the listing (in the coming days). I honestly feel an injection from the NGIO spin is the only way we achieve uplisting this calendar year, if the Naz is unable to make an exception for the $2 rule for us.
5) If we don't get an uplist in the next month or so, I think we need to request some financial estimates for the current fiscal year from Joe and team. (If we do uplist, I'll presume analysts will demand this from them) If they want to list/play w the big Cos, we need to communicate expectations that they should put some target numbers "out there" for us to shoot for and measure them against.
In my opinion, this should realistically include, at a minimum: revenue estimates for the remaining Qs/fiscal year (by business line - Excellagen, MSO, AZ, etc.), fiscal-year goals for timing/$s from Excellagen licensing rollout, short-term goals for rationalizing G&A expenses that have gone up w the acquisitions, a target date for being Operating Cash Flow positive, MSO rollout goals (particularly in the face of a failure to uplist promptly, if that occurs), etc.
We should also receive announcements when significant sales events happen (McKesson checks?), as revs are paramount right now.
I think this is fair and reasonable as the company leaves this "initial" acquisition phase and starts to ramp up operations. We can then revisit these numbers a year from now to see how we are performing.
That's some of what's on my mind...
As Mike Myers used to say on Coffee Talk... "Discuss..."
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