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Posted On: 10/20/2019 9:46:53 AM
Post# of 155128
Fortuno,
The best way to do DD is to precisely do wat you did: calculate all the scenarios for SP and make a decision based on a positive MATEMATICAL expectancy ($ I win X probability of wining - $ I lose X probability of losing).
I have calculated different scenarios (shared some calculations here earlier on).
I prefer to use rNVP (risk-adjusted value) approach to try and calculate the "fair" price of the stock, regardless, the point here is that all is dependent on the market penetration, Lero's price and the discount value (in my evaluation the embedded risk).
IF (a big IF) the dilution of shares would reach 1B and 2B (as per your suggestion) my calculation for SP is $2.52 and $1.25 respectively (for Combo only as I invested on this basis only). I am not adding any oncology indication yet.
Once BLA is filed I will change my discount value and this forecasts will be higher proportionately.
All our attempts to SP calculation are bound to be flawed one way or another, however, the bottom-line is that the SP is currently not fair by a large margin.
GLTYA
The best way to do DD is to precisely do wat you did: calculate all the scenarios for SP and make a decision based on a positive MATEMATICAL expectancy ($ I win X probability of wining - $ I lose X probability of losing).
I have calculated different scenarios (shared some calculations here earlier on).
I prefer to use rNVP (risk-adjusted value) approach to try and calculate the "fair" price of the stock, regardless, the point here is that all is dependent on the market penetration, Lero's price and the discount value (in my evaluation the embedded risk).
IF (a big IF) the dilution of shares would reach 1B and 2B (as per your suggestion) my calculation for SP is $2.52 and $1.25 respectively (for Combo only as I invested on this basis only). I am not adding any oncology indication yet.
Once BLA is filed I will change my discount value and this forecasts will be higher proportionately.
All our attempts to SP calculation are bound to be flawed one way or another, however, the bottom-line is that the SP is currently not fair by a large margin.
GLTYA
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