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Posted On: 08/17/2019 9:13:25 PM
Post# of 149011
They brings me to the next point. Anson was wondering why we were posting revenue projections before approval, counting our chickens before they hatch, hopefully this answers it. (As aside, I invited him here. Right now, I believe he is a new shareholder just doing DD with concerns about financing , but with SeaOfSand’s manipulative before with many accounts, it’s hard to tell the difference sometimes, so that is why people are challenging you on yahoo Anson. ).
Anyway to the point, the R&R report will estimate sales ( or earnings), I use sales to make it easier. Then calculate the probability of approval to get the predicted value. Multiple by market average p/s, and you have the expected market cap value, again based on 700 companies as an estimate.
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home...sdata.html
Drugs (Biotechnology) n=481 price/sales 5.87
Drugs (Pharmaceutical) n=237 price/sales 4.37
So after the BLA, let’s take 10000 enrollment with combo, 35k a year. Drug approval some gave 85% after BLA, I had one for large molecule only it was 96%, with the safety and unmet need I feel over 99%. Now the first attempt is not always successful, sometimes it takes two tries, I thing 80-90% on first go if I recall. Anyway let’s just say 85%. And price/sales go with 4x. Everything on low end.
So 10,000x35,000 x .85 x 4 = $1.2B expected market cap using low end numbers. Just for combo alone, no mono, cancer, nash, etc.
My questions, just for conversion, and to the point. Right now the market cap is $156M.
Why is the market cap so low with that expected to be significant higher?
When do you think the market will adjust to reflect? — i.e when can we count the chicken as hatched?
When will other investors see this discrepancy and jump into the market?
Anyway to the point, the R&R report will estimate sales ( or earnings), I use sales to make it easier. Then calculate the probability of approval to get the predicted value. Multiple by market average p/s, and you have the expected market cap value, again based on 700 companies as an estimate.
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home...sdata.html
Drugs (Biotechnology) n=481 price/sales 5.87
Drugs (Pharmaceutical) n=237 price/sales 4.37
So after the BLA, let’s take 10000 enrollment with combo, 35k a year. Drug approval some gave 85% after BLA, I had one for large molecule only it was 96%, with the safety and unmet need I feel over 99%. Now the first attempt is not always successful, sometimes it takes two tries, I thing 80-90% on first go if I recall. Anyway let’s just say 85%. And price/sales go with 4x. Everything on low end.
So 10,000x35,000 x .85 x 4 = $1.2B expected market cap using low end numbers. Just for combo alone, no mono, cancer, nash, etc.
My questions, just for conversion, and to the point. Right now the market cap is $156M.
Why is the market cap so low with that expected to be significant higher?
When do you think the market will adjust to reflect? — i.e when can we count the chicken as hatched?
When will other investors see this discrepancy and jump into the market?
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