Great post! Also keep in mind that Leo's calculation of 600m - 1.2B annual revenue is based on the HNC patients alone (120k HNC patients x 5k treatment = 600m).

The blog also states that the calculated Brilacidin market share with off-label patients is 650k patients instead of "only" 120k HNC patients!

http://www.ipharminc.com/new-blog/2019/4/9/br...-mucositis

If you include the off-label patients in those calculation you get a much higher revenue: 650k x 5k = 3.25B/ year.

Now let's apply those numbers to your calculations (with the 5k per treatment number only).

Total revenue from just B-OM with off-label market = $390M ($3.25B x 12% royalty)

Annual IPIX Earnings using only revenue from B-OM = $370 (deducting $20M/yr expenses)

Earnings per Share = 1,681 ($370 / 220M shares)

IPIX stock price using royalty based IONS PE of 41 = $68.95

IPIX stock price using biotech average PE of 145 = $243.84

I'd be more than happy if your original numbers came true. My point is simply don't forget the off-label market. Leo even gave us the basis for this with his number of 650k patients per year!

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