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Posted On: 09/26/2018 2:04:48 PM
Post# of 72441
Alan and I were conversing about my question of what the B signifies in the clip he posted and it led to a little bit of math on my end. So I figured I'd share:
If AMRN sees peak sales of $2.7B and are therefore potentially valued at $50pps, then given an OS count of 296M shares the company should be worht $14.8B.
I read somewhere when looking into AMRN that the estimated cost of their treatments are expectated to be about ~$2,500 year. This then means they will be treating about 1M patients a year to hit roughly $2.7B in sales.
The 10k says the IPIX OS count was 163M between class A and B stock as of August. I realize the two companies are not apples to apples; however, I think it is fair to say the two companies are comparable in size of market potential as it pertains to the B franchise. I'd be willing to bet that the B franchise will target at least 1 million patients a year between OM, IBD, and antibiotic treatments. Plus I'd bet our cost of treatments will be higher than $2,500 per course.
So, for fun, if IPIX were to get the same type of valuation (not accounting for the fact that we have a much larger and more valuable pipeline), and lets just say for fun we have a little more dilution making OS 170M, then that could put us at $87 per share!! I am VERY ok with that.
Since that doesnt factor in K or P at all, I will target all the naysayers that call out $50-$100 pps target as foolish and wishful thinking to do the math. $50-$100 pps for IPIX is totally reasonable given the market sizes out there. I dont think for one minute that it can be considered stock pumping to throw around these valuations. The math is there and it works.
If AMRN sees peak sales of $2.7B and are therefore potentially valued at $50pps, then given an OS count of 296M shares the company should be worht $14.8B.
I read somewhere when looking into AMRN that the estimated cost of their treatments are expectated to be about ~$2,500 year. This then means they will be treating about 1M patients a year to hit roughly $2.7B in sales.
The 10k says the IPIX OS count was 163M between class A and B stock as of August. I realize the two companies are not apples to apples; however, I think it is fair to say the two companies are comparable in size of market potential as it pertains to the B franchise. I'd be willing to bet that the B franchise will target at least 1 million patients a year between OM, IBD, and antibiotic treatments. Plus I'd bet our cost of treatments will be higher than $2,500 per course.
So, for fun, if IPIX were to get the same type of valuation (not accounting for the fact that we have a much larger and more valuable pipeline), and lets just say for fun we have a little more dilution making OS 170M, then that could put us at $87 per share!! I am VERY ok with that.
Since that doesnt factor in K or P at all, I will target all the naysayers that call out $50-$100 pps target as foolish and wishful thinking to do the math. $50-$100 pps for IPIX is totally reasonable given the market sizes out there. I dont think for one minute that it can be considered stock pumping to throw around these valuations. The math is there and it works.
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