(Total Views: 378)
Posted On: 09/08/2018 4:46:49 PM
Post# of 72446
Pete I'm glad you brought up Anacor which was purchased for $5.2B. The purchase was for Crisaborole, a topical eczema gel. How does Crisaborole stack up at the time of Pfizer's purchase?
1. Safe.
2. Outstanding Phase 3 results.
3. No new treatment for atopic dermatitis in 15 years.
4. Patent to 2030.
5. NDA already submitted
6. Pfizer estimated $2B+/year in sales.
7. (The drug was approved 6 months after the acquisition)
So the drug was a shoe-in for approval and picked up after NDA was submitted with 14 years of patent remaining and $2B/year in estimated sales.
That's $28B worth of drug by Pfizer's estimate, six months away from approval, purchased for $5.2B.
This is why people like me think $1B-3B for IPIX is a huge win at this time. It's all about uncertainty for big pharma. They pay up big for sure things. In this case that you cited, Pfizer paid 18% of the estimated lifetime value of a slam dunk post-phase3 drug six months from approval. More importantly, Anacor took the deal. They were not strapped like IPIX and could have spun up marketing/sales but they opted for 18%-and-out.
These kinds of comps are why "full value" means different things to different people. Now, if we end up with 50%PASI75 and no SAEs then up that buyout by a billion. Unless P 2B delivers in a big way, the sum total of our pipeline is a long way from and years behind the value of Crisaborole.
1. Safe.
2. Outstanding Phase 3 results.
3. No new treatment for atopic dermatitis in 15 years.
4. Patent to 2030.
5. NDA already submitted
6. Pfizer estimated $2B+/year in sales.
7. (The drug was approved 6 months after the acquisition)
So the drug was a shoe-in for approval and picked up after NDA was submitted with 14 years of patent remaining and $2B/year in estimated sales.
That's $28B worth of drug by Pfizer's estimate, six months away from approval, purchased for $5.2B.
This is why people like me think $1B-3B for IPIX is a huge win at this time. It's all about uncertainty for big pharma. They pay up big for sure things. In this case that you cited, Pfizer paid 18% of the estimated lifetime value of a slam dunk post-phase3 drug six months from approval. More importantly, Anacor took the deal. They were not strapped like IPIX and could have spun up marketing/sales but they opted for 18%-and-out.
These kinds of comps are why "full value" means different things to different people. Now, if we end up with 50%PASI75 and no SAEs then up that buyout by a billion. Unless P 2B delivers in a big way, the sum total of our pipeline is a long way from and years behind the value of Crisaborole.
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