They don't have a clue but are looking at the cumulative evidence:
The CE
No new content
No positive pr's
No buying to speak of
lawsuits
prior failed promises
depature of key personnel
office shut down
gaming division done
no distribution of ntgl shares
house up for auction
add what you want to the list

Despite all the above, I'm holding on to my shares for the mere fact that I'm already down so much it isn't worth selling.