In my opinion it's not so much a good chance of "winning" as"'being awarded".

Although I don't know the details, I don't think it's a competition - more a bid to fulfill part of a requirement that is likely greater to be greater than all available contractors could fill - as explained in my multiple posts..

Success will depend on TMPS being able to meet an agreed timescale to start with all the hoops that will need to jumped through - if not this year definitely next.

They already have the aircraft - in excellent condition of course with one careful owner - with a greater fuel offload capacity both per individual aircraft mission and in the fleet overall - and of better quality than those of the only other main contractor in the sector in the US (Omega).

They will have to recruit sufficient aircrew and groundcrew - mostly ex-military - which is unlikely to be a problem - again as explained in my previous posts.

Spare parts will not be a problem - TMPS deliberately bought additional aircraft over and above the planned tanker / transport fleet size specifically to use for spares.

In addition, TMPS is an authorized aircraft parts manufacturer.

They already know how to submit bids to the US military - having been awarded multiple high value DoD contracts for complex, special mission aircraft requirements already.