(Total Views: 258)
Posted On: 04/08/2018 11:42:21 AM
Post# of 72444
I'm still debating whether now is the time to buy more or if it is better to wait for results. Let's talk about $10K which is ready to go in the brokerage account. Assume a much larger core position is already in place.
Take a scenario for Prurisol results...a little game theory if you will on a lazy Sunday morning.
1) I can buy now at $0.60 and assume all of the risk/reward.
2) I can buy the morning the Prurisol results are released. I receive alerts from Inno Pharma and watch the morning news/boards like a hawk.
Obviously, if Prurisol does poorly it's better to wait until after results to buy. What happens if results are good though? Say 40%PASI75@300mg with no SAEs drops on us. That solidifies Prurisol as superior to Otezla. This number would mean George's value of $10B for Prurisol is likely on target.
How far does the stock price run that morning though? There are a couple things going against it:
1) IPIX is not well-known. (Most eyes won't be on the news before the open)
2) IPIX is not on NASDAQ. (No institutional buying)
Will the stock run to $1.50? $2? $3? $5? I think it will take the market longer than 9:30am to value the stock higher than that.
$10B is about $70/share for CTIX. If I pay $5/share that is 12x on just Prurisol AFTER it has been 90% derisked. If I only pay $2/share that is 35x with little risk. Not as nice as getting the extra shares at $0.60 but certainly less risk.
So what are the upsides to waiting?
1) No Prurisol risk while still likely retaining a good upside on good results.
2) If Prurisol is bad, cheaper shares might be obtained for a Brilacidin deal.
What are the downsides to waiting?
1) Less leverage on good Prurisol results.
2) Small possibility of missing a monstrous short squeeze if there is hidden NSS that needs to cover.
2) The possibility that a Brilacidin deal is announced ahead of or in tandem with the Prurisol results.
Decisions, decisions. Anyone else pondering this conundrum?
Take a scenario for Prurisol results...a little game theory if you will on a lazy Sunday morning.
1) I can buy now at $0.60 and assume all of the risk/reward.
2) I can buy the morning the Prurisol results are released. I receive alerts from Inno Pharma and watch the morning news/boards like a hawk.
Obviously, if Prurisol does poorly it's better to wait until after results to buy. What happens if results are good though? Say 40%PASI75@300mg with no SAEs drops on us. That solidifies Prurisol as superior to Otezla. This number would mean George's value of $10B for Prurisol is likely on target.
How far does the stock price run that morning though? There are a couple things going against it:
1) IPIX is not well-known. (Most eyes won't be on the news before the open)
2) IPIX is not on NASDAQ. (No institutional buying)
Will the stock run to $1.50? $2? $3? $5? I think it will take the market longer than 9:30am to value the stock higher than that.
$10B is about $70/share for CTIX. If I pay $5/share that is 12x on just Prurisol AFTER it has been 90% derisked. If I only pay $2/share that is 35x with little risk. Not as nice as getting the extra shares at $0.60 but certainly less risk.
So what are the upsides to waiting?
1) No Prurisol risk while still likely retaining a good upside on good results.
2) If Prurisol is bad, cheaper shares might be obtained for a Brilacidin deal.
What are the downsides to waiting?
1) Less leverage on good Prurisol results.
2) Small possibility of missing a monstrous short squeeze if there is hidden NSS that needs to cover.
2) The possibility that a Brilacidin deal is announced ahead of or in tandem with the Prurisol results.
Decisions, decisions. Anyone else pondering this conundrum?
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The Ghost of Phteven. All posts my opinion and speculation only.
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