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Posted On: 03/13/2018 6:44:45 PM
Post# of 72446
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Hmmm.Let's see.PCYC bought for 21B for one drug expected to fetch $5B in 2020.Side effects and safety warnings quite intimidating too.
That's one drug that was already approved in 50 countries, in an additional 13 phase 3 trials, and already running at $1B/year at the time. All of our indications are years away from that. Also, it's an immunotheraphy drug for blood and various other cancers - there are risks but there are also risks not taking it.
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I figure at $5Bn/each of the 5 indications my math comes up with a minimum of $25Bn.But then we haven't explored the myriad of likely indications for each of the 3 platforms (P,B,K) not to mention the topical market(s) for B alone,have we.
The potential is there but we are a long way from that. We're going to find out shortly what Prurisol is worth shortly. You throw billions around like they are nothing. You are quick to compare potential mid-stage clinical drugs to proven ones already on the market.
From BigKahuna's email from Leo:
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/21116141-e...on-to-come
Psoriasis- A successful Phase 2 study with very good efficacy and low toxicity can become a 0.5 billion dollar value. A successful Phase 3 with good efficacy and low toxicity can become a 2+ billion dollar value.
So assuming very good efficacy and low toxicity the boss is thinking $500M value for Prurisol. With a phase 3 he says $2B+. Now, our phase 2b is a bit larger than the phase 2 he was talking about back then so lets call it $1B for a very good and safe phase 2B.
I'll be generous and give $1B for each strong dunk phase 2/2B trial. $500M for the phase 2As. This assumes Prurisol 2B delivers and Kevetrin 2a showed something BP likes.
B ABSSSI: $1B
B OM: $1B
B UP: $500M
Prurisol: $1B (with 30%+PASI75 and so SAEs)
Kevetrin: $500M (assuming BP affirmatively saw something they liked in the small 2a)
That totals $4B when trying to shoe horn the other drugs into Leo's guestimation of Prurisol value at different clinical stages. That comes in right around $30/share.
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But,ALAS,NO,we just aren't worth even the $21B that bought PCYC.
Not even close with just assets that haven't started a phase 3 trial.
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I guess we'll just have to accept $6/share and go home right?
Well, I said $8-30/share, not sure where you got $6 came from.
Go IPIX!
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All my posts are my own personal opinion and speculation. They should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. No, I am not Scottsmith.
