Posted On: 01/06/2013 9:04:24 AM
Post# of 72444
The topic of todays work is "what to do in the face of the CTIX news GAP".
I have tried for the longest to put together a TIMELINE with regards to the
release of quantitative information from the company. I have failed and not due
to any lack of effort. Leo Ehrlich has backed off from his declaration that
that shareholders would be DELUGED with data to a stance where he reminds us
that actual release has to pass through the hands of the Principal Investigator.
The conduct of our Principal Investigator has to be studied in the context
of a broader framework. The perspective gained from Anthropology is highly useful
in understanding what behavior to expect from the Principal Investigator.
First one needs to understand that the elite group of persons within American
culture that are a subculture we call the Journal Editors have enormous control
over the conduct of Principal Investigators. To see a parallel in tribal culture
to the relationship one would have to look to the relationship between SHAMANS and
and juvenile members of a tribe. Principal Investigators have a need to pass muster
with and gain the approval of Journal Editors like they were children in some tribe
going through a right of passage. One of the rules associated the right of passage
is that new science presented for publication must be VIRGIN. Every editor wants his
publication to be the FIRST to announce to the world what has been discovered.
Allowing us to see much of the quantitative information we would like would be
equal to the tribal juveniles allowing someone to have sex with a VIRGIN they were
task by the SHAMAN with guarding.
Let me pause to discuss the term "NEWS GAP". When in the future you get a quickly
written piece from me while I am SPLIT SCREEN and trading or just too busy; understand
that this means the ABSENCE of Trial data. In my conversations recently with buy and
hold investors they want to pound the table with me about "other" upcoming news
such as the PRURISOL trail start or new funding etc. Those thing are nice but they are
collateral to the CATALYST NEWS CYCLE and not a part OF IT.
As asset allocators we want to be OVERWEIGHT the next CATALYST. I believed in December
when I heard the DELUGE remark that we would see actual quantitative confirmation
of P53 activation sooner than this writing. I was wrong. The result of that fact is
that my call to OVERWEIGHT CTIX has caused my followers to become BAG HOLDERS in the short
run. I have no doubt about the LONG TERM PROSPECTS for CTIX; I believe they are excellent.
I no longer believe a SHORT RUN OVERWEIGHT is called for. I am out at 1.85
My current model is 60% CLSN 5% SBFM and 35% cash. My basis take off on CLSN
which we expect to happen in a FEW DAYS will be added to my cash position. I expect
the bashers and shorts to DOMINATE discussion on IHUB during the relevant SHORT RUN PERIOD
in SPITE of the best efforts of some on this list to produce a different result.
This view is subject to CHANGE. A crammer caveat I follow is "when the facts change
you must change your investment thesis". Mr Ehrlich could change my view in a heartbeat
but he is in my view WEARING A SET OF HANDCUFFS placed on him by the allegiance of
the PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR to the dictates of the SHAMANS.
My take off on CLSN will be accomplished entirely by selling to close my APR 2013
calls. My Jan 2014s will be held for EXERCISE in the future hopefully when the share price
approached $40. I will hold my strong cash position until the FACTS favor a reallocation
and will write when I see it happen.
BIOMANBABA
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