Posted On: 12/31/2016 7:58:09 PM
Post# of 72440
Well my main question was with regard to a guestimation of outstanding naked short shares but it appears my fund raising assumption needs to be defended.
Allow me to present what I'm working with.
We have the following from the 10K:
1. As of June 30, 2016, we had approximately $6.3 million in cash and cash equivalents
2. The Company plans to incur expenses of approximately $19 million over the next twelve months
3. Our operating activities used cash of $9.88 million, $13.07 million and $7.51 million in 2016, 2015 and 2014, respectively
4. Our financing activities provided cash of $8.20 million, $16.95 million and $12.19 million in 2016, 2015 and 2014, respectively.
Following from clinicaltrials.gov
5. Prurisol P2B Estimated Study Completion Date: July 2017
6. Brilacidin-OM P2 Estimated Study Completion Date: December 2017
Summary of and assumptions made based on items 1-4:
2014: Used $7.51M, Raised $12.19M
2015: Used $13.07M, Raised $16.95M
2016: Used $9.88M, Raised $8.20M
2017: Company Anticipates $19M, Will Raise per my calculations $15M
My guess at the 2017 numbers keeps cash-on-hand at >$2M to keep the lights on during negotiations and deal signing.
Yes, I believe we will have a substantial deal signed on at least one of our platforms in 2017 though I don't know if it will happen prior to June 30, 2017 (the end of the estimation period in the 10K). Evidence Items 5 and 6 suggest to me that neither platform will be fully proved out in the first half.
Yes it is possible that deals could be struck on interim results (if provided). I however, particularly regarding Prurisol, would prefer to have the fully-powered study completed for the biggest deal possible.
If you see anything inaccurate about my data and assumptions I welcome the criticism but I think you will find it does not warrant the term BS. Thanks.
Allow me to present what I'm working with.
We have the following from the 10K:
1. As of June 30, 2016, we had approximately $6.3 million in cash and cash equivalents
2. The Company plans to incur expenses of approximately $19 million over the next twelve months
3. Our operating activities used cash of $9.88 million, $13.07 million and $7.51 million in 2016, 2015 and 2014, respectively
4. Our financing activities provided cash of $8.20 million, $16.95 million and $12.19 million in 2016, 2015 and 2014, respectively.
Following from clinicaltrials.gov
5. Prurisol P2B Estimated Study Completion Date: July 2017
6. Brilacidin-OM P2 Estimated Study Completion Date: December 2017
Summary of and assumptions made based on items 1-4:
2014: Used $7.51M, Raised $12.19M
2015: Used $13.07M, Raised $16.95M
2016: Used $9.88M, Raised $8.20M
2017: Company Anticipates $19M, Will Raise per my calculations $15M
My guess at the 2017 numbers keeps cash-on-hand at >$2M to keep the lights on during negotiations and deal signing.
Yes, I believe we will have a substantial deal signed on at least one of our platforms in 2017 though I don't know if it will happen prior to June 30, 2017 (the end of the estimation period in the 10K). Evidence Items 5 and 6 suggest to me that neither platform will be fully proved out in the first half.
Yes it is possible that deals could be struck on interim results (if provided). I however, particularly regarding Prurisol, would prefer to have the fully-powered study completed for the biggest deal possible.
If you see anything inaccurate about my data and assumptions I welcome the criticism but I think you will find it does not warrant the term BS. Thanks.
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All content of my posts is my opinion and speculation. Do not treat anything I say as fact or actionable investment advice. I participate to challenge my investment thesis from any angle possible. Please do your own due diligence.
Current Positions:
Long CTIX.
Current Positions:
Long CTIX.
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