Posted On: 12/31/2016 6:45:48 PM
Post# of 72440
Obviously we see some MM games almost daily and of course the obvious short raids involving Mako. Aside from that though, I was under the impression that the lack of exposure and fund raising on OTC was holding the price back.
Assuming management wants to keep cash levels roughly level, there would be regular sales to Aspire. 1,000,000 shares/month @ $1.25 would narrowly cover the $19,000,000 the company anticipated needing from 6/2016-6/2017 ($19M per the 10K less cash on hand at the time). With ~20 trading days per month that would necessitate an average of 50K shares per day of sales to Aspire. Actual shares sold per day could be greater or less than that but it's the guesstimate that I'm using.
50K shares per day of newly minted shares is a significant headwind given our exchange and daily volume. We are obviously undervalued but it is easy to see how we spin our wheels even with a good amount of retail buying.
For the naked short theory proponents:
I know Alan and 4kids take an interest in naked shorting as a real driver for the CTIX price action. Do we have any way to quantify how many undelivered naked shares exist? I know there are no good statistics but is there any way to form an estimate based on daily volume over the last couple years? Do either of you have any wild guesses as to how many naked shorted shares there are still unaccounted for? 5,000,000? 10,000,000? More? Do you think naked short sales each month exceed those of Aspire?
Assuming management wants to keep cash levels roughly level, there would be regular sales to Aspire. 1,000,000 shares/month @ $1.25 would narrowly cover the $19,000,000 the company anticipated needing from 6/2016-6/2017 ($19M per the 10K less cash on hand at the time). With ~20 trading days per month that would necessitate an average of 50K shares per day of sales to Aspire. Actual shares sold per day could be greater or less than that but it's the guesstimate that I'm using.
50K shares per day of newly minted shares is a significant headwind given our exchange and daily volume. We are obviously undervalued but it is easy to see how we spin our wheels even with a good amount of retail buying.
For the naked short theory proponents:
I know Alan and 4kids take an interest in naked shorting as a real driver for the CTIX price action. Do we have any way to quantify how many undelivered naked shares exist? I know there are no good statistics but is there any way to form an estimate based on daily volume over the last couple years? Do either of you have any wild guesses as to how many naked shorted shares there are still unaccounted for? 5,000,000? 10,000,000? More? Do you think naked short sales each month exceed those of Aspire?
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All content of my posts is my opinion and speculation. Do not treat anything I say as fact or actionable investment advice. I participate to challenge my investment thesis from any angle possible. Please do your own due diligence.
Current Positions:
Long CTIX.
Current Positions:
Long CTIX.
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