Posted On: 11/17/2016 3:34:21 PM
Post# of 51865
'I Feel Vindicated': Catching Up with Professor Who Called Trump's Victory
If you've been watching Happening Now recently, you've seen Professor Allan Lichtman predict President-elect Donald Trump's victory.
Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University, maintained that despite the polls that favored Hillary Clinton, Trump would win based on his model, "13 Keys to the White House."
His system correctly predicted every U.S. presidential contest since 1984.
Professor Lichtman told Jenna Lee he feels "vindicated" because he was able to show people that to understand elections, "you've got to look at the deeper forces that drive the outcome."
He said he focuses on historical patterns, not polls, pundits or daily headlines. In this case, he said the incumbent Democrats were extremely vulnerable even though Trump had his own issues among voters.
The professor added that forecasters and analysts "abuse and misuse" polls as predictors, referring to Nate Silver as a "clerk" who simply compiles polling data.
"All [polls] have to screen for likely voters and they don't know who is actually going to vote. When they say the error margin is plus or minus 3.5 percent, that assumes everything else is right, including the likely voters," said Lichtman.
Lee asked what either party should do differently going forward. Lichtman recommended scrapping "useless, offensive" negative ads, arguing they do not work and have never swayed an election.
If you've been watching Happening Now recently, you've seen Professor Allan Lichtman predict President-elect Donald Trump's victory.
Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University, maintained that despite the polls that favored Hillary Clinton, Trump would win based on his model, "13 Keys to the White House."
His system correctly predicted every U.S. presidential contest since 1984.
Professor Lichtman told Jenna Lee he feels "vindicated" because he was able to show people that to understand elections, "you've got to look at the deeper forces that drive the outcome."
He said he focuses on historical patterns, not polls, pundits or daily headlines. In this case, he said the incumbent Democrats were extremely vulnerable even though Trump had his own issues among voters.
The professor added that forecasters and analysts "abuse and misuse" polls as predictors, referring to Nate Silver as a "clerk" who simply compiles polling data.
"All [polls] have to screen for likely voters and they don't know who is actually going to vote. When they say the error margin is plus or minus 3.5 percent, that assumes everything else is right, including the likely voters," said Lichtman.
Lee asked what either party should do differently going forward. Lichtman recommended scrapping "useless, offensive" negative ads, arguing they do not work and have never swayed an election.
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