Quote:Ratings changes in races for president, Congress, and governors
Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley,
Sabato's Crystal Ball October 27th, 2016
Another week has passed in the presidential race and it appears that Donald Trump is not making up much if any ground on Hillary Clinton. Last month, we coined the term “Fortress Obama” to describe an outer and inner ring of defenses Clinton had against Trump as she sought to recreate Barack Obama’s Electoral College majority.
The outer ring consisted of states like Florida, Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio — states that Obama won twice but that are vulnerable to Trump — as well as North Carolina, which Obama carried only in 2008. These are states that Trump needs but that Clinton could probably do without.
Then there’s the inner ring, states like Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin, none of which Clinton can afford to lose if Trump were to completely knock down the outer ring.
At this point, Clinton is no worse than 50-50 to carry each of the outer ring states — even states like Iowa and Ohio, where polls have been very close or even show a Trump edge — and she seems secure in all of the inner ring states.
This is why Clinton is such a heavy favorite to win the presidency, and our ratings changes this week make her an even slightly bigger favorite. The fact that early voting has started in earnest in many of critical states also limits Trump’s comeback potential: Even if some major late development causes the polls to tighten, many millions of votes will have already been cast.
This week, we’re not altering our topline Electoral College projection. We have 352 electoral votes — 82 more than the 270 required — at least leaning to Hillary Clinton, 173 at least leaning to Donald Trump, and 13 electoral votes worth of Toss-ups: Iowa, Utah, and the single electoral vote in Maine’s Second Congressional District.
But we are strengthening the map for Clinton by pushing two Leans Democratic states — New Hampshire, and Wisconsin — to Likely Democratic.
That moves Clinton to 272 electoral votes that are rated at least likely for her, matching the highest total we’ve had for her this cycle
(we had 272 electoral votes at least likely for her before her September campaign downturn, in advance of her recovery during the first debate).
Map 1: Crystal Ball Electoral College ratings
Table 1: Crystal Ball Electoral College ratings changes
While New Hampshire and Wisconsin are, on paper, states where Trump should be very competitive — both states are much whiter than the national average — Trump has not led a single poll in either state, according to the RealClearPolitics averages. The Clinton campaign has always appeared very confident in Wisconsin — the candidate herself has not even visited the state during the general election period, a sign that the campaign does not feel vulnerable there — and public polling averages in both states shows Clinton with a lead of half a dozen points or more.
A few other tidbits about the presidential election:
— The Crystal Ball actually has the largest projected electoral vote total of any of the major prognosticators. Our friends over at 270toWin.com, a wonderful site where you can make your own electoral maps, have been tracking other projections.
While all of the analysts have Clinton clear of 270 electoral votes, we’re the highest at 352 (these projections are as of Wednesday morning but they include our changes in the Granite and Badger states).
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/
1
