The reality is that this is a high risk start up penny stock oil play and we are living through the growing pains. If I wanted a "safe" oil company I'd go with XOM, COP, CVX, OXY, etc., but none of them offer the 20-50 times return on investment that this play does.

If someone wants 20-50 times returns on their investment, they have to accept the risk.

They have to accept the fact that there is a chance that they can lose everything, and that it's almost a mathematical certainty that there are going to be times when the stock is hammered into the ground. They also have to accept the fact that start ups screw up constantly and that what we are watching for now is their ability to learn from their mistakes.

I've studied the hell out of small oil companies and the oil industry over the past year and knowing what I know now about the typical start up oil companies it was naive of me to take the 1000 bpd by June 2012 estimate seriously. Treaty was caught up in their own excitement and I think that they have learned their lesson as have I.

At the end of the day I think Treaty is going to make it because I can tell that they are enormously ambitious and want to redeem themselves in the eyes of their bond holders, their share holders, their community, and prove all the naysayers wrong.

I don't give a crap what the market says this is worth right now. The market for this stock is being run by short sellers who don't know the difference between a blow out preventer and a crown block.

All that matters is the oil production, and that is completely in Treaty's hands. You know better than I that this ain't popping pop corn and that it takes time for it to happen. For 20-50 times return on my investment, that is fine. I can wait.