Posted On: 10/13/2016 8:05:33 PM
Post# of 30038
I spoke to Fred today. He said they are in a "tough situation" He sounded much more negative than a few weeks ago- he was pretty positive when I spoke to him last. He said the 5 cent floor was a "gentleman's agreement". He said someone started selling. Obviously if one person is selling than the others have to too to protect their interest. I'm guessing they were in the process of getting it in writing since the board agreed to it but didn't get it done for whatever reason before this guy started selling. He said they are not even thinking about the RS at this point- all attention is trying to get funding to start ESS. The partner is still there but the partner has to take care of a couple things first before they can commit- not sure what that could be. He said they were still talking to a source for funding.
If they do a huge RS, it would help the noteholders, but AMBS still wouldn't have any money to fund ESS. If they could get some funds from somewhere to start the trial and get thru even just 6-9 months, they might be able to have some initial data. With positive data, everything changes. Nobody is going loan them money with Magna in the way. Maybe the noteholders would change their terms -even temporarily for another year if they gave them some ownership in ESS in return. If Magna plays hardball and won't negotiate, I think it would be better for the shareholders if GC filed BK than do another RS. If there is another RS, the shareholders will be wiped out. In a BK, I don't believe Magna could convert and their funds would be tied up in court for a long time. AMBS' assets would be sold and the shareholders would almost certainly get something. I think that may be the only leverage GC has at this point. I can't believe for how valuable ESS is, that he can't put together some kind of deal by giving up some ownership to the lenders to make it all work. The Godsend would be an AFIRM grant- Fred didn't seem to know anything about it or unwilling to disclose anything. I can' t believe the Dept. of Defense would sit by and see ESS go down the drain again. This is chump change for them.
If they do a huge RS, it would help the noteholders, but AMBS still wouldn't have any money to fund ESS. If they could get some funds from somewhere to start the trial and get thru even just 6-9 months, they might be able to have some initial data. With positive data, everything changes. Nobody is going loan them money with Magna in the way. Maybe the noteholders would change their terms -even temporarily for another year if they gave them some ownership in ESS in return. If Magna plays hardball and won't negotiate, I think it would be better for the shareholders if GC filed BK than do another RS. If there is another RS, the shareholders will be wiped out. In a BK, I don't believe Magna could convert and their funds would be tied up in court for a long time. AMBS' assets would be sold and the shareholders would almost certainly get something. I think that may be the only leverage GC has at this point. I can't believe for how valuable ESS is, that he can't put together some kind of deal by giving up some ownership to the lenders to make it all work. The Godsend would be an AFIRM grant- Fred didn't seem to know anything about it or unwilling to disclose anything. I can' t believe the Dept. of Defense would sit by and see ESS go down the drain again. This is chump change for them.
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