Just for fun, I will go out out on a limb here and take a wild shot at what I think a realistic JV deal might look like. I don’t think there is any real interest from big pharma for ESS without positive phase 2 data- just too much risk and likewise any potential partner that does exist will want to limit their risk as well. So I think they will try to put up as little as possible on the front end and put more on the back-end. I will say if it’s for 50% ownership of US rights only:

They would share development costs with an upfront payment of $6- 9 million + $10-12 million milestone on positive phase 2 data + $15- $20 million on FDA approval (which could take 4+ years). I think if it’s a licencing deal then the milestone payments would be a little more with a tiered royalty and the partner would pay for all of the development costs. If they already had phase 2 data, they could probably get at least $20 million up front for the US, (and even more if they didn’t have to do a phase 3) but they are not there yet.

If it’s a Chinese company and includes licensing rights to Asia, I think there would be an additional upfront payment of $10-15 million + future sales milestone payments and a tiered royalty in the teens. I'm sure the approval process would be simpler in China.

Bottom line if it's just for the US, I think the upfront payment will be small, but enough to stabilize the company and get them to phase 2 results- I would be shocked if there wasn’t a substantial milestone with positive phase 2. Of course this is all speculation and I could be way off on my numbers- we shall see