Maybe I missed something. Do you have your own private polling organization that is furnishing you with your 'fairy dust' projections?

I'm going to stick with this guy who, again, nailed 99 out of 100 States over the last two presidential cycles.

Quote:

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Clinton is slightly outperforming Obama in purple states

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-...ame-thing/


STATE

2012 MARGIN

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT UNADJUSTED POLLING AVERAGE, 2016

SWING VERSUS 2012

North Carolina Romney +2.0 Clinton +1.4 Clinton +3.4
Florida Obama +0.9 Clinton +4.6 Clinton +3.7
Ohio Obama +3.0 Clinton +3.2 Clinton +0.2
Virginia Obama +3.9 Clinton +5.7 Clinton +1.8
Colorado Obama +5.4 Clinton +0.7 Trump +4.6
Pennsylvania Obama +5.4 Clinton +6.1 Clinton +0.7
New Hampshire Obama +5.6 Clinton +5.3 Trump +0.3
Iowa Obama +5.8 Clinton +5.0 Trump +0.8
Nevada Obama +6.7 Trump +0.6 Trump +7.3
Wisconsin Obama +6.9 Clinton +9.6 Clinton +2.7
Minnesota Obama +7.7 Clinton +11.0 Clinton +3.3
Michigan Obama +9.5 Clinton +11.7 Clinton +2.3
New Mexico Obama +10.1 Clinton +8.0 Trump +2.1
Weighted average Obama +4.2 Clinton +5.6 Clinton +1.4

Clinton is slightly outperforming Obama in purple states

You can get more detailed than this if you like — by noting, for instance, that the Virginia polls are fairly out of date, and that there isn’t very much polling at all in New Mexico, whereas we have lots of data about Florida. Our models have various ways to adjust for those considerations.

But on average, both our fancy models and the comparatively simple analysis I’m conducting here get you to the same conclusion. Clinton is ahead by 5 or 6 percentage points in the swing states, close to where national polls have the race.

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