How much influence does an incumbent outgoing president's popularity have in the outcome of the next presidential election? Or in other words, does a popular president make it more likely that his party's candidate will effectively win a third term?

Presidential approval does seem to be one factor. Two others are the country's economic outlook and the slate of candidates running.

At the end of March, President Obama's average weekly approval rating measured by Gallup reached 53 percent, his highest level since 2013. The lowest weekly average of his presidency was 40 percent, recorded in the week of the 2014 midterm elections.

Based on the results of past presidential elections and the popularity of other two-term presidents, some analysts think that if Mr. Obama's approval remains steady, it could bode well for the Democratic presidential nominee and for Democrats running for Congress.

"There is a correlation between presidential approval and success for the president's party in elections," Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University, told CBS News.