Posted On: 03/25/2016 11:27:38 AM
Post# of 96896
New NTEK Projected Revenue
Based on 1M UltraFlix 4K users and 10M UltraFlix HDTV users
2015 OTT STB Global Sales = 302 million (according to IHS Technology)
2015 4K TV Global Sales = 30 million (according to Futuresource Consulting)
Based on the aforementioned numbers, we could assume the global OTT STB market is 10x the global 4K TV market. Therefore, when UltraFlix 4K users total 1 million, we could assume UltraFlix HDTV users could total 10 million.
When NTEK Reaches 1 Million UltraFlix 4K Users
Assumption: Avg 4K UF power user would spend $260/yr (1 movie/wk at $5 per movie).
Assumption: 20% of users are power users and generate 80% of revenue (Pareto Principle).
20% of them would spend $52 million/yr, representing 80% of overall revenue.
Total UltraFlix 4K revenue would be $65 million/yr.
When NTEK Reaches 10 Million UltraFlix HDTV Users
Assumption: Avg HDTV UF power user would spend $208/yr (1 movie/wk at $4 per movie).
Assumption: 20% of users are power users and generate 80% of revenue (Pareto Principle).
20% of them would spend $416 million/yr. This will represent 80% of overall revenue.
Total UltraFlix HDTV revenue would be $520 million/yr.
UltraFlix 4K revs (w/ 1 mil users) + HDTV revs (10 mil users) would be $585 million/yr
Keep in mind, this is a very, very rough guess that only focuses on two revenue sources. This does not include 4K Studio revenue, mobile device revenue, or any additional planned revenue (VR, live performances, etc.).
It's also worth noting that a lot of people, including me, already snagged the $99 holiday deals. So, the more holidays deals NTEK sells, the further we'll fall short of the above revenue numbers.
Anyway, I thought I'd throw these numbers out there to initiate some discussion on how the HDTV announcement might affect revenues.
Based on 1M UltraFlix 4K users and 10M UltraFlix HDTV users
2015 OTT STB Global Sales = 302 million (according to IHS Technology)
2015 4K TV Global Sales = 30 million (according to Futuresource Consulting)
Based on the aforementioned numbers, we could assume the global OTT STB market is 10x the global 4K TV market. Therefore, when UltraFlix 4K users total 1 million, we could assume UltraFlix HDTV users could total 10 million.
When NTEK Reaches 1 Million UltraFlix 4K Users
Assumption: Avg 4K UF power user would spend $260/yr (1 movie/wk at $5 per movie).
Assumption: 20% of users are power users and generate 80% of revenue (Pareto Principle).
20% of them would spend $52 million/yr, representing 80% of overall revenue.
Total UltraFlix 4K revenue would be $65 million/yr.
When NTEK Reaches 10 Million UltraFlix HDTV Users
Assumption: Avg HDTV UF power user would spend $208/yr (1 movie/wk at $4 per movie).
Assumption: 20% of users are power users and generate 80% of revenue (Pareto Principle).
20% of them would spend $416 million/yr. This will represent 80% of overall revenue.
Total UltraFlix HDTV revenue would be $520 million/yr.
UltraFlix 4K revs (w/ 1 mil users) + HDTV revs (10 mil users) would be $585 million/yr
Keep in mind, this is a very, very rough guess that only focuses on two revenue sources. This does not include 4K Studio revenue, mobile device revenue, or any additional planned revenue (VR, live performances, etc.).
It's also worth noting that a lot of people, including me, already snagged the $99 holiday deals. So, the more holidays deals NTEK sells, the further we'll fall short of the above revenue numbers.
Anyway, I thought I'd throw these numbers out there to initiate some discussion on how the HDTV announcement might affect revenues.
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