My response to a BK post on the iHub.

A couple of observations...
1). The number of cases I've seen used previously was 450,000.
2). There is already a treatment approved for just a small (10%?) subset of OM sufferers. It has been posted here in the past that this already approved treatment is priced at $10,000 per. Using your formula with these numbers puts the potential annual revenue for B-OM at over $4 billion.

Just sayin...

Quote:

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400,000 estimated cases per year (Lionel, 2006) times $2,000 per course treatment (estimated treatment course price for B-OM) nets a minimum of $800 million which includes all therapy induced oral mucositis including both chemo and radiation patients as well as "patients receiving high-dose chemotherapy (HDC) conditioning before hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT)" (Lionel, 2006). Many patients will likely need multiple courses (~7 weeks per course) since many radiation/chemo treatments can last 4 to 6 months.

The occurrence numbers are a little higher today as the numbers for both chemo and radiation treatments as well as HSCT conditioning are up from the 2004-2005 stats reported by Lionel and others. HSCT is important since 78% of all patients experience some OM.

So, billion dollar drug assuming $2000 per (up to 7 week) course, which seems a little low, maybe a lot low. - Posted by BIgKahuna

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