Posted On: 06/17/2015 4:24:42 PM
Post# of 72446
Here's something I posted on another, non-CTIX board but it applies here as well.
It does seem like a common pattern in biotechs -- IPO, great excitement and hoopla, price stays around IPO price or higher for awhile, and then whammo, it tanks hugely. Then takes years to get back up there.
For example:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/q...mp;time=20
Year 1 (6 months): Oh boy I got a piece of the IPO. Hmmm, well it's not down too much, okay we're going back up again, whew
Year 2: OMG what's happening? Well, I'll just hold on, it will recover. Well, I'm not going to sell now, it will come back. OMG it's too late to sell now, if I sell it will go back up and I'll feel stupid.
Year 3: Oh #@&% why did I ever buy this garbage, what a mistake, if only I could go back in time. Hey wait a minute, maybe I should sell... well I'll sell when it gets up further. Oh no I shoulda sold here #@&$
Year 4: should I sell and take a small loss, no I'll hold on, no maybe I should sell, hey look it's back up to the IPO price I think I'll sell
Two choices now:
Year 5: Why did I sell, it's going up, I am SO STUPID
or
Year 5: I guess I'll hold on and see, hey it's going up, hey it's almost at a double, oh no it's rolling over I'd better sell. (Then it goes from 40 to 180)
It does seem like a common pattern in biotechs -- IPO, great excitement and hoopla, price stays around IPO price or higher for awhile, and then whammo, it tanks hugely. Then takes years to get back up there.
For example:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/q...mp;time=20
Year 1 (6 months): Oh boy I got a piece of the IPO. Hmmm, well it's not down too much, okay we're going back up again, whew
Year 2: OMG what's happening? Well, I'll just hold on, it will recover. Well, I'm not going to sell now, it will come back. OMG it's too late to sell now, if I sell it will go back up and I'll feel stupid.
Year 3: Oh #@&% why did I ever buy this garbage, what a mistake, if only I could go back in time. Hey wait a minute, maybe I should sell... well I'll sell when it gets up further. Oh no I shoulda sold here #@&$
Year 4: should I sell and take a small loss, no I'll hold on, no maybe I should sell, hey look it's back up to the IPO price I think I'll sell
Two choices now:
Year 5: Why did I sell, it's going up, I am SO STUPID
or
Year 5: I guess I'll hold on and see, hey it's going up, hey it's almost at a double, oh no it's rolling over I'd better sell. (Then it goes from 40 to 180)
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