Posted On: 03/26/2015 6:20:48 PM
Post# of 41414
Re: fingerscrossed #12815
Let's use the 37% number.
You're telling me 63% of the time, the slides fail (in a disaster, which we have to assume the mini evac simulates). That's the statistic for each slide, correct? And all of the slides need to work? If I remember correctly, there are 5 slides.
Let's do some statistics to see the odds of all 5 slides deploying: 0.37^5 = .0187 = ~1.9% chance that all 5 slides will deploy in one attempt.
That's saying that out of 50 attempts, only ONE attempt will result in all 5 slides deploying. Are you suggesting that Baltia's chances for passing evac are thus, close to 2%?
You're telling me 63% of the time, the slides fail (in a disaster, which we have to assume the mini evac simulates). That's the statistic for each slide, correct? And all of the slides need to work? If I remember correctly, there are 5 slides.
Let's do some statistics to see the odds of all 5 slides deploying: 0.37^5 = .0187 = ~1.9% chance that all 5 slides will deploy in one attempt.
That's saying that out of 50 attempts, only ONE attempt will result in all 5 slides deploying. Are you suggesting that Baltia's chances for passing evac are thus, close to 2%?
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